How to Trade Coach, Michael Kors, Movado, Ralph Lauren, Tiffany, Luxury Retailers

Coach (COH) , Michael Kors (KORS) , Movado (MOV) , Ralph Lauren (RL) and Tiffany (TIF) -- the key luxury retailers -- are deep into bear market territory since their stocks set their all-time highs between March 2012 and November 2014. These stocks have been behind the retail earnings woodshed and are attempting to return to investment status.

Coach reported quarterly earnings on Nov. 1 with a slightly better-than-expected report. The stock popped on this report, but gave up the gains and then some by the end of last week. The weekly chart ended last week negative but oversold.

Michael Kors reports earnings after the closing bell on Nov. 10. Analysts expect the company to earn 88 cents a share. The weekly chart ended last week positive, which favors a positive reaction to earnings.

Movado does not report earnings until Nov. 22 for its quarter, which ended in October. Analysts expect the company to earn 71 cents a share. The weekly chart ended last week negative.

Ralph Lauren reports earnings before the opening bell on Nov. 10. Analysts expect the company to earn $1.70 a share. The weekly chart ended last week negative.

Tiffany does not report earnings until Nov. 22 for its quarter, which ended in October. Analysts expect the company to earn 67 cents a share. The weekly chart ended last week positive but overbought.

Here's a scorecard for the five luxury retailers.

 

Here's the daily chart for Coach.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Coach closed Monday at $36.27, up 10.8% year to date. It is in bear market territory, 54.5% below its March 30, 2012, high of $79.70. The stock is also in bull market territory, 33.2% above its Sept. 29, 2015, low of $27.22.

The horizontal lines on the daily chart are the Fibonacci retracement levels of the decline from the March 3, 2015, high of $43.42 to the Sept. 29, 2015, low.

The stock began the year holding its 23.6% retracement of $31.15 between Jan. 14 and Jan. 25. The stock quickly popped to its 61.8% retracement of $37.51 on Feb. 1. Then it dipped to its 38.2% retracement of $33.58 on Feb. 9. As this occurred, the stock closed with a "golden cross" on Feb. 8, when the 50-day simple moving average rose above the 200-day simple moving average, suggesting that higher prices were ahead. From the close of $34.43 on Feb. 8, the stock quickly rose to its 61.8% retracement of $37.51 on Feb. 23.

The 61.8% retracement has been a magnet since then. The 2016 high of $43.71 was set on July 27, and since then the stock has been trading back and forth around its 50% retracement of $35.55. The stock closed Monday between the 50% retracement and the 61.8% retracement.

Investors looking to buy the stock should do so on weakness to $34.95, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of this week. Investors looking to reduce holdings should consider selling strength to $37.55 and $38.87, which are key levels on technical charts until the end of December and the end of November, respectively.

Here's the daily chart for Michael Kors.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Michael Kors closed Monday at $50.30, up 25.6% year to date. It is still in bear market territory, though,  50.2% below its Feb. 28, 2014, high of $101.04. But the stock is also in bull market territory, 44.4% above its Jan. 20 low of $34.83.

The horizontal lines on the daily chart are the Fibonacci retracement levels of the rally from the Jan. 20 low to the March 14 high of $59.49.

Since setting the high, the stock declined to as low as $40.36 on May 19. This was below the 61.8% retracement of $44.25. Since then, the stock has traded mostly between its 50% retracement of $47.16 and its 23.6% retracement of $53.67, and has lately been around its 38.2% retracement of $50.07, with Monday's close just above this level.

Investors looking to buy the stock should do so on weakness to $43.31, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of November. Investors looking to reduce holdings should consider selling strength to $69.93, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of 2016.

Here's the daily chart for Movado.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Movado closed Monday at $22.70, down 11.7% year to date. It is in bear market territory, 53.2% below its Nov. 8, 2013, high of $48.50. But the stock is 18.6% above the June 13 low of $19.14.

The horizontal lines on the daily chart are the Fibonacci retracement levels of the decline from the March 11 high of $30.99 to the June 13 low. Since setting the low, the stock has been trading back and forth around its 23.6% retracement of $21.93. Between Aug. 15 and Aug. 24, the stock was above its 38.2% retracement of $23.66. Movado is currently trading about midway between these two retracements.

Investors looking to buy the stock should do so on weakness to $20.91, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of 2016. Investors looking to reduce holdings should consider selling strength to $28.66, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of 2016.

Here's the daily chart for Ralph Lauren.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Ralph Lauren closed Monday at $99.83, down 10.5% year to date. It is in bear market territory, 48% below its Nov. 25, 2013, high of $192.30. The stock is also in bull market territory, and is 21.5% above its Feb. 11 low of $82.15.

The daily chart shows the Fibonacci retracements of the decline from Nov. 6, 2015, high of $137.38 to the Feb. 11 low. Since setting the low, the stock traded back and forth around its 23.6% retracement of $95.19 between March 2 and Aug. 9. Between Aug. 11 and Aug. 23, the stock tested its 50% retracement of $109.77. By Oct. 21, the stock was back to its 23.6% retracement. The stock is now between its 23.6% retracement of $95.19 and its 38.2% retracement of $103.25.

Investors looking to buy the stock should do so on weakness to $97.84, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of this week. Investors looking to reduce holdings should consider selling strength to $103.12, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of November.

Here's the daily chart for Tiffany.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Tiffany closed Monday at $76.09, down just 0.3% year to date. But it is in bear market territory, 31.2% below its Nov. 28, 2014, high of $110.60. The stock is in bull market territory, 33.5% above its June 27 low of $56.99.

The daily chart shows the Fibonacci retracements of the decline from the Aug. 10, 2015, high of $96.41 to the June 27 low. Since setting the low, the stock recaptured its 23.6% retracement of $66.30 on Aug. 11. The 38.2% retracement of $72.05 has been a magnet since Aug. 25. The stock is approaching its 50% retracement of $76.70 this week.

Investors looking to buy the stock should do so on weakness to $73.40, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of November. Investors looking to reduce holdings should consider selling strength to $78.62, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of this week.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

More from Stocks

Week Ahead: Trade Fears and Stress Tests Signal More Volatility To Come

Week Ahead: Trade Fears and Stress Tests Signal More Volatility To Come

3 Great Stock Market Sectors Millennials Should Invest In

3 Great Stock Market Sectors Millennials Should Invest In

Why Millennials Are Ditching Stocks for ETFs

Why Millennials Are Ditching Stocks for ETFs

Trump's 'Space Force' Could Launch a $1 Trillion Industry, Morgan Stanley Says

Trump's 'Space Force' Could Launch a $1 Trillion Industry, Morgan Stanley Says

Abiomed Stock Should Rise Some 12% From Here, Piper Jaffray Analyst Says

Abiomed Stock Should Rise Some 12% From Here, Piper Jaffray Analyst Says