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Which European stocks are likely to rise or fall most depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election?

BNP Paribas (BNPQF)  , France's largest bank, has come up with a novel way of arriving at an answer, crunching the numbers on stock movements during Hillary Clinton's woes after the FBI's short-lived relaunch of its investigation into her emails.

The resulting figures suggest a Clinton win would be good new for European banks, oil companies and any company with significant U.S. revenue, according to BNP.

Italy's fragile banking sector, which can ill afford a global economic downturn, was among the biggest losers during the nine days of uncertainy created by the FBI probe. Banca Popolare di Milano (BPMLY) , Banco Popolare (BPSAY) , Unicredit (UNCFF) and Mediobanca (MDIBF) all lost more than 9%.

Elsewhere, sports clothes maker Adidas (ADDYY) tumbled 11%, advertising group JCDecaux (JCDXF) was down 10% and telecom holding company Altice (ALLVF) fell 9.6% over the nine day period during the FBI's investigation, while oil was the period's worst-performing sector.

With regards to Trump, BNP backed the wider Wall Street consensus that a Republican would be bad news for the stock market in general -- though it claimed that the result would "perversely" hurt European stocks more than U.S. stocks as reflationary fears hit the global market.
 
The French bank likened the Republican's victory to past "big risk events," drawing a comparison with the recent British vote to leave the EU, and claiming that history suggested markets would fall by between 5% and 11%.

"Trump, with a Republican Congress, will likely pursue tax reform, (with) income and corporation tax rates to be cut, (and) infrastructure spend to be increased," said BNP. "Even assuming some moderation from (his) manifesto, this would imply significantly higher fiscal support and more public borrowing."

The Republican's policies would "likely see a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle," the bank noted. "This environment could prove very pro reflation."  

Pharmaceutical shares would offer investors some protection against the selloff, according to BNP, which based its analysis on drug makers' relative resilience to the Brexit shock.  

Companies with a high portion of revenue generated in the U.S. and sensitivity to higher rates would likely underperform. BNP named British engineering companies Smiths (SMGZY) and Weir (WEIGY) , both of which make almost 50% of their sales in the U.S,, and rental business Ashtead (ASHTY) , which makes over 80% of its revenues Stateside, at the top of a list of companies that likely to fall in the wake of a Trump victory.

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