Traders appear to believe Hillary Clinton is headed for victory and Donald Trump for defeat.
Stocks rebounded Monday after nine straight days of losses as investors appeared heartened by an increased probability Clinton will win the presidency on Tuesday. FBI director James Comey on Sunday announced that a review of a new batch of emails uncovered had given the bureau no cause to change its opinion that the former secretary of state should not face criminal charges. Futures markets jumped, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up more than 300 points on Monday. Predict market odds swung in Clinton's favor as well.
"It's interesting to see how markets are responding to the news about the election. It's always risky to make investments around an election, especially a presidential campaign as volatile as this one. There's little doubt in traders' minds that this was good news for Clinton and bad news for Trump," said John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of U.S.-based prediction market PredictIt.
The platform now gives Clinton 82% odds at the White House. Trump's odds are 22%, according to PredictIt.
Just last week, Clinton's chances had dropped into the mid-60% range, and Trump's were well over 30%. Comey's October 28 letter to Congress indicating the FBI had discovered more emails in a separate investigation shook global markets and prediction markets alike.
The movements of prediction markets, which allow individuals to make bets on the outcomes of events, have moved in conjunction with broader market indicators this election cycle.
Clinton's prediction markets odds climbed steadily during the first presidential debate. So did S&P 500 futures, the Mexican peso and oil prices. And as her chances declined last week as concerns mounted over what the FBI might uncover in her emails, gold rallied, the Mexican peso fell and the VIX futures market, which measures volatility, increased.
"There's a definite correlation," said Phillips.
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight's polls-only forecast now gives Clinton a 68.3% chance at defeating Trump on Tuesday after dropping below 65% on Friday and over the weekend. The New York Times' The Upshot says Clinton has an 84% chance to win, and The Huffington Post list her odds as 98.1%. (Silver and HuffPo's Ryan Grimm had a heated exchange over methodology over the weekend.)
A RealClearPolitics average of polls gives Clinton a three-point edge over Trump. Sabato's Crystal Ball projects Clinton will wind up with 322 electoral votes and Trump 216.
"It's not going to come as news to anyone that it would have to be a very improbable outcome for Trump to win in the electoral college or for there to be a tie," said Phillips, who is also cofounder and CEO of Washington, D.C.-based global political consulting firm Aristotle Inc.
While the road may be widening for Clinton, the same cannot be said for Congressional Democrats.
The FiveThirtyEight model now gives Republicans a 54.6% chance of maintaining control of the Senate after showing Dems were likelier to take control since late August. Sabato's Crystal Ball has the Senate ending up in a 50-50 tie.
Prediction market traders see Democrats taking over, albeit barely. PredictIt traders say Republicans have a 45% chance of holding on.
"I would suspect that once the presidential campaign is settled early tomorrow night, if that's when it happens, people are going to be laser-focused on what's going on in the Senate campaign, who's going to control it," said Phillips. "A big margin for the Democrats or the Republicans is a very different situation from a 50-50 situation where people actually have to talk to each other and work with each other to get anything done, and the markets will probably react favorably to that."