ANN ARBOR, Mich., Nov. 4, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- In the final week before Election Day, the American Customer Satisfaction Index prediction is almost the same as it was in early August: Hillary Clinton's voter share has dropped from 49% to 48%, while Donald Trump has gained from 39% to 41%.
The ACSI uses an economic model of buyer choice applied to voting behavior. Like consumers, voters choose candidates based on the expected satisfaction (or utility in economics) that a candidate will deliver once in office. In the market for goods and services, expected satisfaction is predicted by past satisfaction. In the absence of "actual" prior satisfaction in advance of the inauguration of a new president, the ACSI uses a proxy: satisfaction with each candidate and his or her campaign. This measure is informative about the strength/weakness of a candidate's support. The expected satisfaction is forward looking and used to predict market share, or in this case, voter share. The ACSI characterizes supporters as "strong" or "weak" depending on the gap in both satisfaction and expectations for each of the candidates. By this measure, strong supporters are unlikely to shift. Clinton's weak support gains 2 points as strong support slips 4 points to 35 percent. Trump's gain in strong support is more modest, up a point to 29 percent, while his weak support climbs to 12 percent. Undecideds grow for a second straight week to 12 percent as a tumultuous election season draws to a close.