The uncertainty generated by Donald Trump in the Oval Office could throw markets and the economy into a tailspin, but there are ways to make money under a President Trump.
Signs point to a precarious situation for investors should the self-described billionaire pull out a win on November 8 over his more traditional Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. By one estimate, Trump in the White House could damage the U.S. economy and drive down global equity markets, oil prices and a number of global currencies. There are ways to win on a Trump presidency, or at least hedge for a Trump-induced selloff.
Gold, a traditional safe haven, has already risen at the prospect of a Trump victory, gaining in the wake of the FBI's decision to reopen its investigation into Clinton's emails on Friday. This week, it surpassed $1,300 per ounce.
Gold could rise to $1,500 an ounce, said HSBC analyst James Steel this week, citing Trump's protectionist trade policies and their potential repercussions.
"If trade frictions trigger counter measures by other nations and encourage competitive currency devaluation, gold is further likely to be a beneficiary," he said. He added that Trump's proposed tax cuts, which would increase federal deficits significantly, are associated with higher gold prices as well.
Trump's prediction market odds at the White House appear to have mimicked gold prices throughout the campaign as well as the weakness of the Mexican peso against the dollar.
The Japanese yen was the only major currency to decline against the dollar during the first presidential debate, which Clinton was widely considered to win, and climbed after the FBI letter last Friday.
The Swiss franc and the euro may also be wise currency investments, said Gregory Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics. Dartmouth economist Eric Zitzewitz pointed to treasury bonds, volatility futures, silver and gold and silver mining firms. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) , led by Barrick Gold (ABX) , Newmont (NEM) and Goldcorp (GG) , has climbed about 6% over the past five days as market uncertainty has heightened. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has declined 2%.
A more atypical haven for investors with an appetite for risk is Bitcoin. The digital currency's value has risen significantly in recent years at particular moments of national crises, such as Greece's potential exit from the European Union and the United Kingdom's Brexit vote, said Windsor Holden, head of forecasting and consultancy at Juniper Research.
"The likelihood that Trump will be elected has risen, or seems to have risen over the past week or so. As a result of that, or partially as a result of that, we see further increases in the price of Bitcoin," he said.
Bitcoin is currently trading at over $700, up from under $400 a year ago. "Bitcoin is incredibly volatile," Holden warned.
Health care, financials and energy are the three sectors that stand to be most affected by the election's outcome, said Scott Kessler, analyst at CFRA.
A Trump victory would cause uncertainty and volatility in the health care sector, given the candidate's pledge to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. He has also proposed allowing the re-importation of drugs from overseas, which would hurt biotechs and pharmaceuticals.
Trump's proposals related to financials and energy, on the other hand, would boost many companies in the sector by rolling back regulations. Trump has said he would seek to dismantle Dodd-Frank, which would also lead to the elimination of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, benefitting Capital One Financial (COF) and Discover Financial (DFS) .
"Donald Trump is a big proponent of fossil fuel consumption and coal in particular," said Kessler, which would mean good things for coal companies, fracking companies and others that face heavy regulation. It might not be so great for the environment.
For those looking to position themselves for either a Clinton or Trump win, Kessler said infrastructure and defense may be the best bets. Both candidates have promised massive infrastructure spending and are more hawkish than president Obama on defense.
To be sure, it may be Trump and his family who have the most to gain on a Trump victory. He has spent nearly $10 million reimbursing his children for travel expenses and family-owned companies for campaign services, according to a review of Federal Election Commission filings by The Wall Street Journal.
There is some evidence his White House bid has harmed his businesses and his brand, especially among high-end consumers to whom he has traditionally catered. It may have also opened up new opportunities geared toward his supporters. "While he may have lost a business market, he also potentially gained a market," said Karen Leland, founder of branding strategy company Sterling Marketing Group and author of The Brand Mapping Strategy. For something like a Trump TV, perhaps.
And if not, there are always Trump stock certificates. Original certificates from Trump Entertainment Resorts, Trump's thrice-bankrupt holding company in Atlantic City, saw their prices rise earlier in the election cycle, but sales have slowed, said Bob Kerstein, owner of stock and bond dealer Scripophily, which sells the certificates.
"I have a feeling they will pick up after the elections as a holiday gift. Win or lose, the Trump certificates will always be remembered and be collectible," he said.