Will Insiders Be Tempted To Buy More HRTG At The New 52-Week Low?

In trading on Thursday, shares of Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc (HRTG) touched a new 52-week low of $11.36/share. That's a $13.62 share price drop, or -54.52% decline from the 52-week high of $24.98 set back on 11/06/2015. Large percentage drops always require that the stock post even larger percentage gains from the low in order to recover the old price point, and for HRTG that means the stock would have to gain 119.89% to get back to the 52-week high. For a move like that, Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc would need fundamental strength at the business level.

Here's a rhetorical question: Who knows more about fundamentals at the business level than the company's own insiders? So let's take a look to see whether any company insiders were taking the other side of the trade as HRTG shares were being sold down to this new 52-week low, focusing on the most recent trailing six month period. As summarized by the table below, HRTG has seen 9 different instances of insiders buying over the past six months.

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Purchased Insider Title Shares Price/Share Value
05/09/2016 Bruce Lucas Chairman & CEO 18,500 $13.40 $247,857.45
05/09/2016 Stephen L. Rohde CFO, Treasurer & Secretary 3,000 $13.40 $40,200.00
06/14/2016 Panagiotis Apostolou Director 4,952 $12.33 $61,038.35
06/15/2016 Nicholas George Pappas Director 1,000 $12.32 $12,324.60
06/14/2016 Bruce Lucas Chairman & CEO 15,700 $12.47 $195,796.27
06/14/2016 Irini Barlas Director 4,200 $12.45 $52,293.78
06/15/2016 Trifon Houvardas Director 2,000 $12.38 $24,760.00
06/17/2016 Richard A. Widdicombe President 10,000 $12.84 $128,384.00
06/27/2016 Ernie J. Garateix Chief Operating Officer 2,000 $11.86 $23,720.40
08/22/2016 James Masiello Director 20,000 $12.96 $259,104.00

In the short run, while the new 52-week low suggests the stock is at the cheapest price and perhaps therefore the best bargain it has been over the last 52 weeks, the low print also means anyone who has purchased the stock over that timeframe is staring at an unrealized loss. Oftentimes, that factor drives a stock's technical analysis metrics by creating overhead resistance, with investors who bought higher now anxious to reverse their trade once they are back to breakeven. The chart below shows where HRTG has traded over the past year, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages included.

Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc Moving Averages Chart

Time will tell whether the insider purchases foretell a future rebound for HRTG shares, which are presently showing a last trade of $11.45/share, slightly above the new 52-week low.

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