Nordstrom's (JWN) third-quarter results will show how the company's inventory management is going as well as its outlook for the holiday season.
The Seattle-based retailer, which reports results on November 12, may be able to beat estimates, with Credit Suisse analyst Michael Exstein looking to results from Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) as a proxy. Exstein noted that results from Cheesecake Factory and Nordstrom had a 73% correlation rate from 2012 to 2014 but dipped to 32% in 2015 because of holiday shifts.
However, recent figures from Cheesecake Factory showed an improvement, which Exstein believes will bode well for Nordstrom. "With CAKE and [Nordstrom] sharing a similar customer base and locations, we believe that theacceleration in comps and traffic could be a positive read-through for [Nordstrom's] sales performance," the analyst wrote in a note to clients.
Shares of Nordstrom have significantly outperformed over the past four months, gaining nearly 40%, as investors are betting the company's margins have stabilized, Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Trussell wrote in a note.
Trussell expects the company to earn 55 cents a share in the third quarter, $2.92 for the full year and $3.22 for 2017, all above what Wall Street is expecting. Analysts surveyed by Yahoo! Finance expect the company to earn 51 cents a share on $3.48 billion in revenues.
These three ETFs may benefit if investors like what Nordstrom has to say about the past 90 days and its place in e-commerce, as well as what's likely to happen in the fourth quarter.
AdvisorShares Wilshire Buyback ETF
Nordstrom makes up 2.69% of the AdvisorShares Wilshire Buyback ETF (TTFS) , which has $9.19 billion in assets under management and has a 0.99% expense ratio.
Deutsche Bank's Trussell noted the company is focusing more on tech, supply chain and marketing efficiencies, which are likely to help boost gross margins. "JWN is lapping four consecutive triple-digit bps GPM declines starting in 3Q15 which were driven by higher markdowns in a slower sales environment withunseasonable weather and tourism weakness, and we think the Street is underappreciating GPM recovery potential vs. our forecast for a modest (but not full) rebound," Trussell wrote in a note to clients.
WisdomTree Dynamic Long/Short U.S. Equity Fund
The WisdomTree Dynamic Long/Short U.S. Equity Fund ETF (DYLS) has Nordstrom make up 2.03% of its $20.4 million portfolio and charges investors a 0.48% expense ratio.
Credit Suisse's Exstein, who rates Nordstrom shares neutral with a $40 price target, is also looking to hear what the company has to say about its online sales, which the company started disclosing in 2012, as well as its outlook for the holiday shopping season.
SPDR S&P 500 High Dividend ETF
The SPDR S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD) has Nordstrom make up 1.59% of its $46.8 million portfolio and charges investors a 0.12% expense ratio.
Deutsche Bank's Trussell, who has a hold rating and a $56 price target on Nordstrom, believes that Wall Street has not yet realized the potential improvement to earnings thanks to gross margin improvement, as well as the company "turning the corner on Canada, HauteLook/Nordstromrack.com, and Trunk Club."