As Southeast dealerships reopen after Hurricane Matthew, TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,360,000 units in October, down by 6.6 percent from a year ago. However, adjusting for two fewer selling days this year than in October 2015, sales growth may be 0.6% percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis.

This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.86 million units for the month, down from an 18.16 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decline 1.7 percent to 1,160,400 adjusted for selling days.

"As retail demand plateaus automakers will be forced to make the critical decision to cut vehicle production or increase incentives," said Eric Lyman, TrueCar's chief industry analyst. "Planned reductions by FCA and Ford indicate a more disciplined approach to sales strategies going forward that will support a healthy automotive market."

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,587 per vehicle in October, up 15.7 percent from a year ago, and down 2.6 percent from September 2016.

"On a daily selling rate October sales will surpass the blistering sales of one year ago, showing that there's still gas left in the tank for automobile sales that should remain strong through the rest of 2016," said Lyman.

Toyota retail market share should jump dramatically in October, buoyed by continued strength of the light truck portfolio.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined in October at 98.6, down from 103.5 in September and overall U.S. economic conditions remain healthy. September's unemployment rate was 5.0 percent, the lowest for that month in eight years, while gasoline prices remain favorable for consumers, national average of $2.22 per gallon on October 25 shows steady decline on the week.

Other key findings for October:
  • Registration mix is expected to be 85 percent retail sales and 14.7 percent fleet versus 87.4 percent retail and 12.6 percent fleet last October.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,285,364 up 10.5 percent from October 2015.
 

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales
 

Manufacturer
   

October

2016 Forecast
   

October 2015
   

% Change vs.

October 2015
   

YoY %Change(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW     30,000     33,591     -10.7%     -3.8%
Daimler     32,500     32,472     0.1%     7.8%
FCA     175,000     196,711     -11.0%     -4.2%
Ford     192,000     213,105     -9.9%     -3.0%
GM     239,500     262,993     -8.9%     -1.9%
Honda     128,000     131,651     -2.8%     4.7%
Hyundai     55,800     60,005     -7.0%     0.1%
Kia     49,000     50,044     -2.1%     5.4%
Nissan     113,000     116,047     -2.6%     4.9%
Subaru     52,000     51,629     0.7%     8.5%
Toyota     201,000     204,045     -1.5%     6.1%
Volkswagen Group     43,500     52,343     -16.9%     -10.5%

Industry
   

1,360,000
   

1,455,516
   

-6.6%
   

0.6%
               
 

Total Market Share
 
Manufacturer     October 2016 Forecast     October 2015     September 2016
BMW     2.2%     2.3%     2.1%
Daimler     2.4%     2.2%     2.3%
FCA     12.9%     13.5%     13.5%
Ford     14.1%     14.6%     14.2%
GM     17.6%     18.1%     17.4%
Honda     9.4%     9.0%     9.3%
Hyundai     4.1%     4.1%     4.6%
Kia     3.6%     3.4%     3.4%
Nissan     8.3%     8.0%     8.9%
Subaru     3.8%     3.5%     3.8%
Toyota     14.8%     14.0%     13.7%
Volkswagen Group     3.2%     3.6%     3.2%
           
 

Retail Unit Sales
 

Manufacturer
   

October 2016 Forecast
   

October 2015
   

YoY % Change
   

YoY %Change(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW     28,500     31,085     -8.3%     -1.3%
Daimler     30,800     30,962     -0.5%     7.1%
FCA     131,400     162,535     -19.2%     -12.9%
Ford     145,000     170,677     -15.0%     -8.5%
GM     194,500     213,057     -8.7%     -1.7%
Honda     126,600     130,609     -3.1%     4.4%
Hyundai     41,300     46,640     -11.4%     -4.6%
Kia     41,500     43,780     -5.2%     2.1%
Nissan     97,400     102,827     -5.3%     2.0%
Subaru     50,000     50,427     -0.8%     6.8%
Toyota     187,300     190,649     -1.8%     5.8%
Volkswagen Group     41,300     49,451     -16.5%     -10.1%

Industry
   

1,160,400
   

1,271,664
   

-8.7%
   

-1.7%
               
 

Incentive Spending
 
Manufacturer    

Incentive per Unit October 2016 Forecast
   

Incentive per Unit % Change vs. October 2015
   

Incentive per Unit % Change vs. September 2016
   

Total Spending October 2016 Forecast
BMW     $6,671     33.5%     -6.0%     $199,656,622
Daimler     $4,548     -7.3%     -1.3%     $147,819,162
FCA     $4,388     22.9%     -1.0%     $763,502,912
Ford     $4,404     29.9%     -1.1%     $845,543,104
GM     $4,417     13.8%     -4.6%     $1,057,820,660
Honda    

$1,952
    2.2%     2.2%     $249,824,774
Hyundai     $2,329     12.4%     -0.6%     $131,590,915
Kia     $3,171     7.8%     0.9%     $156,974,595
Nissan     $4,109     15.3%     -3.0%     $464,357,273
Subaru     $1,130     62.6%     3.8%     $58,753,582
Toyota     $2,504     10.2%     -5.2%     $503,378,421
Volkswagen Group     $4,035     4.8%     -2.7%     $174,515,096

Industry
   

$3,587
   

15.7%
   

-2.6%
   

$4,862,695,584
               

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 11,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over one third of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, go to www.truecar.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

View source version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20161026005577/en/

Copyright Business Wire 2010