NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Despite an overall disappointing performance for the year thus far, retailers should see a 3% year-over-year increase in holiday spending from consumers, according to multiple research firms, as well as the National Retail Federation (NRF).
Bloomberg Gadlfy's Shelly Banjo joined "Bloomberg Markets" on Monday afternoon to discuss the forecast.
While this is a positive outlook for retailers, the NRF hardly ever gets the holiday spending prediction right, she noted.
"It's their job to be cheerleaders for the association, but the difference is that it might work for retail spending, but wont' necessarily translate into earnings growth or sales growth for these retailers," Banjo noted.
A number of factors could chip away at that statistic.
First, e-commerce giant Amazon.com (AMZN) is a "big force" and seems to be taking all the growth in the retail business when you look at earnings reports, she noted.
Second, people are more keen to spend their money on things other than retail, such as on experiences like traveling or going to see a movie.
Third, a number of retail executives have claimed that people's uncertainty about the political environment has made them not want to spend as much money.
While there is a possible correlation there, it seems more like a 'dog ate my homework' type of excuse, according to Banjo.
(Amazon.com is held in the Growth Seeker portfolio. See all of the holdings with a free trial.)AMZN data by YCharts