If the Federal Reserve announces no rate hike in September, as is expected, and the market rallies, what happens next depends on what kind of rally we see. Let me explain.
The bookies have the odds heavily stacked against a rate hike. So, the assumption is that the market is going to rally strongly if there is no rate hike. But, I don't think it is that simple.
You see, any rally which fails to make it all the way up to the 2200 region in the S&P 500
So, I will tell you to do what I always tell you to do as we approach the Fed decision: Zoom out. Our support levels on the SPX reside at 2131 and 2119, with 2096 below that. As long as we hold over the 2119-to-2131 SPX support region, then the market is immediately set up to head higher in what we view as a (c) wave of a b-wave corrective rally based on our Elliott Wave analysis.
Alternatively, should we break below 2119 SPX first, then we will watch how we react at 2096. Breaking below 2096 opens the door to the blue box target below on the chart. But, for now, I would rather look for the bigger rally before we set up for lower lows. And again, should the market provide us with a solid 5-wave structure up toward the 2200 region from here, then it would strongly suggest this correction is over, and we are heading to 2350 next, potentially by year-end.
See chart illustrating the wave count on the S&P 500. Or to see more great technical analysis, click here to check out chartist Helene Meisler's Federal Reserve preview on Real Money Pro, TheStreet's subscription-based premium service for active traders.