Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.
"Such ingratitude, after all the times I saved your life."
-- Blondie, THE GOOD THE BAD THE UGLY
Let's run down the good, the bad and the ugly in Friday's market so far:
- Bonds are trading better Friday. The 10- and 30-year bond yields are down by 1-2 basis points. The 2s/10s spread has narrowed by 2 basis points to 93 basis points
- (TWTR) is an upside standout
- (T)FANG higher
- Intel (INTC) on a guide up
- continues weaker
- Insurance stocks off of the improving fixed income picture today
- Autos lower
- Consumer discretionary (e.g. (SBUX) )
- Consumer staples (e.g. (KO) )
- Gold is now challenging $1,300-$1,310 support, and I continue to see a breakdown through the support
I have steadily added to this (speculative) long on weakness. I do not shun in response to the last few days' underperformance; I look at this as an intermediate-term opportunity.
Here is my projected 12-month updated upside/downside:
Upside $525 (+27%)
Downside: $385 (-7%)
Here is my investment thesis.
This is a speculative long, from my perch.
- Taxable bonds continue their correction in price (and rise in yield).
- Selected consumer discretionary stocks like Disney (DIS) and Starbucks (SBUX) . (Both on my Best Ideas List, short).
- Monsanto (MON) - I don't think the deal will be accepted by regulatory authorities.
- Autos and auto-related.