Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.


The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
 
Originally published Sept. 16 at 12:34 p.m. EDT

"Such ingratitude, after all the times I saved your life."

-- Blondie, THE GOOD THE BAD THE UGLY

Let's run down the good, the bad and the ugly in Friday's market so far:

THE GOOD

  • Bonds are trading better Friday. The 10- and 30-year bond yields are down by 1-2 basis points. The 2s/10s spread has narrowed by 2 basis points to 93 basis points
  • (TWTR) is an upside standout
  • (T)FANG higher
  • Intel (INTC) on a guide up

THE BAD

  • continues weaker
  • Insurance stocks off of the improving fixed income picture today
  • Autos lower
  • Consumer discretionary (e.g. (SBUX) )
  • Consumer staples (e.g. (KO) )
  • Gold is now challenging $1,300-$1,310 support, and I continue to see a breakdown through the support
  • REITs

THE UGLY

Position: Long TWTR; Short F, GM, TLT, KO, NFLX (small), IYR (small), SBUX (small)
 

 
Placing CMG on My Best Ideas List
 
Originally published Sept. 16 at 11:25 a.m. EDT

Chipotle Mexican Grill's ( CMG) shares have declined all week after the announcement early this week that Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has taken a 10% position. The shares initially rose to over $444 and are now at $411.80.

I have steadily added to this (speculative) long on weakness. I do not shun in response to the last few days' underperformance; I look at this as an intermediate-term opportunity.

I am placing CMG on my Best Ideas List at $413 as the reward versus risk has now turned quite attractive.

Here is my projected 12-month updated upside/downside:

Upside $525 (+27%)

Downside: $385 (-7%)

Here is my investment thesis.

This is a speculative long, from my perch.

Position: Long CMG.

 
Things That Are (Still) Moving Down
 
Originally published Sept. 15 at 12:18 p.m. EDT

Though the markets are broadly higher Friday, there are still many things that are declining in price:
 
  • Taxable bonds continue their correction in price (and rise in yield).
  • Selected consumer discretionary stocks like Disney (DIS) and Starbucks (SBUX) . (Both on my Best Ideas List, short).
  • Gold.
  • Monsanto (MON) - I don't think the deal will be accepted by regulatory authorities.
  • Autos and auto-related.
Position: Short F, GM, SPY (small), DIS (small), SBUX (small)
 

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long SBUX.

At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were long/short XXX, although holdings can change at any time.

Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.