Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- How Brexit did not end the world
- How everything now shifts from jobs report to earnings
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Cramer: All Is OK With the World, and That's Fine for Now
Posted on July 8 at 3:48 p.m. EDTThe short squeeze before the storm? Or simply one of those situations where those who got short after Brexit finally had to give in and cover?
I think a lot of it is the latter. I want you to think back to two weeks ago when the world was supposed to end. I want you to remember all who said it was over and that there was no coming back from Brexit, that it was systemic, and we would be brought down with it. I want you to remember who came on air and who wrote that this was the worst thing that could happen since Lehman Brothers.
Oh, OK, who remembers? It doesn't matter, right? They will be right back on cue when we need them to scare us out of our wits when we get there.
Two weeks ago Monday, I allegedly made a fool of myself going on "The Today Show" and saying that we would not be thinking about this after a while and that, if anything, if the market comes down you might want to buy, which is what we ended up doing, admittedly small, for ActionAlertsPlus.com
I remember thinking, OK, why the hell not, why not just say what I was thinking, and when I came on "Squawk on the Street" I said, "What does Brexit have to do with the price-to-earnings multiple of Bristol Myers (BMY) ?"
It seemed like I was a Pollyanna, and I spent half the time on Twitter that night defending my "weak" stance that it wouldn't matter or that we would be better off because the Fed was really on hold.
OK, I am gloating a bit, but that's only because of how fed up I am about how many pundits -- and you know who they are -- came on and scared the bejesus out of everyone, scared 'em so badly that that Monday quickly became known as "Redemption Monday" given how much came out, enough that we were now past the amount that came out during the Great Crashes of 2008-09.
Disgusting how people confuse systemic risk with event risk and get away with it.
Anyway, next week is earnings. We will hear guide-downs. But the banks are down enough that I suspect at this point with this employment number some may be able to tell a positive story and buy back more than announced -- think Wells Fargo (WFC) , an Action Alerts PLUS holding -- and all will be OK with the world.
All isn't "right" with the world because of the uncertainty. But OK? That's fine.
One last thing: For those who say I wasn't aggressive enough in telling people to buy, all I can say is, "Did I scare you? Did we do some buying for the trust?"
The answers to those questions are "no" and "yes," respectively.Jim Cramer's charitable trust Action Alerts PLUS was long WFC .
Cramer: With Jobs in the Rearview Mirror, It's About Earnings
Posted on July 8 at 9:42 a.m. EDT
Now it is about earnings.
With this employment number behind us, we have to focus on the fact that earnings season is now in front of us and it is a bit of a frightening specter.
For instance, what does Alcoa (AA) have for us? That's Monday's business, and I struggle to think which lines of business for the "new" Alcoa will be strong. Alumina and aluminum pricing could be worse.
Airlines, the chief business, I think will be good, and the problems at Firth Rixson will prove to be solvable. Autos will be fine. Containers will be fine. But trucks? Oh, Jeez, hard to see good there. Same with construction, although turbines might be okay.
I see Brexit problems, although remember the strong dollar is a mixed blessing for this one.
And I hope for clarity when it comes to the debt picture -- meaning something about where the key preferred that so many individuals own will reside.
Bulls have to hope for a mixed picture at best.
I think the most important takeaway though will be after Alcoa, when we get the much-hated and dreaded banks. Do the stocks reflect what should be very downbeat earnings? Remember the only thing that matters is Net Interest Margin, and if that's the case you are going to see lows for the cycle. That would mean $52 for JPMorgan (JPM) -- the Jamie buy price.
A saving grace? Last time, oil was much lower and the surprise factor of bad loans much higher because of that. Otherwise, I think buy the insurers. They always do well in an anti-bank environment. Think: Chubb Limited (CB) , Travelers (TRV) . And the money should circle back to Action Alerts PLUS charity portfolio holding Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) real soon.
Things are better off on that score, while far worse on the other NIM. We know these banks can't rally except off of yield support, which still isn't near.
And they will define next week's trading.
Baltic Freight over 700 means that something is happening that is good in China, in synch with the General Motors (GM) auto number... Stay tuned.