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Brace yourself for another round of worries about demand, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Tuesday, even though it's likely the supply side of the equation that's running the show.
After weeks of rallies, the markets took a nose-dive today, Cramer said, thanks to worries over our two old friends, oil prices and a strengthening U.S. dollar. But are these culprits really to blame?
Oil prices have fallen 20% from their recent highs, but Cramer said he suspects that the reason is increased supply, not weakening demand. After months of suffering from wildfires, the Canadian oil sands are once again pumping close to one million barrels a day.
In addition to oil stocks, the cruise lines also fell sharply today, led by Royal Caribbean (RCL) , down 6.2%. But while the bears one again turn to weakening demand, Cramer said he has another reason in mind: the increased travel warnings regarding the Zika virus.
The stock market's link with oil prices may not make sense, Cramer concluded, but we need to learn to live with it. Perception always trumps reality, he said, especially in the short term.
Off the Charts
In the "Off the Charts" segment, Cramer checked in with colleague Carley Garner over the direction of oil prices, given its importance to the stock market.
Garner looked at a weekly chart of West Texas Intermediary crude prices and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Weekly Commitment of Traders report. She noted that as oil rallied during the first half of this year, speculators of all sizes were piling on board, leading to 370,000 net-long contracts at the peak.
Garner said oil bottoms are rarely quiet, and traders are now scrambling to liquidate their position. She felt that oil could fall to $38.50 a barrel, or even as low as $34.50 where cute has seen some support.
If oil were to fall below the $35 level however, there will be no support until $25.50 a barrel.
However once the short-term selling is done, Garner was actually bullish on oil, predicting a rise to as much as $48 a barrel.
What to Buy and Avoid
When a CEO tells you things are getting tougher, believe it. That was Cramer's advice after Ford (F) reported a 3% decline in sales, after CEO Mark Fields told Cramer in an interview just last month that things were indeed getting tougher. If General Motors (GM) confirms the downturn, Cramer said he'd avoid the group altogether.
But the same does not apply to other sectors such as restaurants. Panera Bread (PNRA) reported that sales were strong at its newly renovated Panera 2.0 locations, but today we learned that sales were soft at Texas Roadhouse (TXRH,) , news that caused shares to skid over 12%.
Cramer said what was really disturbing at Texas Roadhouse was how management didn't seem to have an explanation as to why sales were slowing. That's why he'd use today's restaurant weakness to snap up some shares of Panera, which is clearly the better operator.
Executive Decision: Frank Slootman
For his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer spoke with Frank Slootman, president and CEO of ServiceNow (NOW) , the enterprise services company that last week posted a 5-cents-a-share earnings beat with raised guidance. Shares of ServiceNow are up 8.3% since Cramer last checked in three months ago, but are still negative on the year.
Slootman said ServiceNow is on target to reach its goal of $4 billion in revenue by 2020 and now has 272 customers paying over $1 million a year for its services. He said the growth opportunity for ServiceNow remains strong in both Europe and Asia.
When asked how his company compares to Workday (WDAY) , Slootman explained that while Workday manages human resource record keeping, ServiceNow manages the "work of HR," including all of the interactions with employees who need help and information from Human Resources.
Slootman also responded to the concerns that some investors had regarding revenue. He said $6 million in bookings slipped from June into July, something that routinely happens. He said that revenue was immediately booked for the July quarter and has no impact on ServiceNow's business over the long term.
Cramer said if investors are looking for high growth in the cloud, ServiceNow has it.
Executive Decision: Joel Marcus
In his second "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Joel Marcus, founder, chairman and CEO of Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) , the real estate investment trust that focuses on science and technology facilities. Shares of Alexandria are up over 20% for the year and sport a 3% dividend yield.
Marcus said the important thing to remember is that in just 10 years time, over 75% of the American workforce will be made up of Millennials. That's why Alexandria is getting ahead of the urbanization trend and developing collaborative urban science facilities in major cities. He said Alexandria facilities feature gardens, restaurants, fitness centers and the collaborative workspaces that are in high demand.
When asked about competition, Marcus noted that there are high barriers to enter this market, as many of the best locations are already occupied. That's how the company is forecasting 37% growth in 2016 and 2017.
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