Target's dismal first-quarter revenue shows that even this favorite of TheStreet's Jim Cramer has not been able to withstand the online retail king. But, like Cramer, when a stock falls -- as much as 11% on Wednesday -- it's time to go shopping for a bargain, and that's Target stock.
The charts say Target's poised to get back what it has lost. First quarter same-store sales rose just 1.2%, missing Wall Street expectations for a 1.6% gain. Combined with a 5.4% decline in revenue, reaching to $16.2 billion and missing analysts' forecast, investors got spooked. Wednesday's decline was the biggest intraday fall the stock has seen since December 2008, driven by investors' fear of weaker revenue given Target's and a poor outlook.
Cramer, manager of the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio that includes Target, said before the earnings release the retailer has been trying to differentiate itself from the pack, and that was certainly the case when Target unveiled its "store of the future" in California earlier Thursday.
However, after the earnings Cramer, and Research Director Jack Mohr, said in a note, "The stock's historically high relative discount to the S&P 500 now appears justified, and we fear management is struggling to simultaneously define its vision and manage shareholder expectations."
TGT closed Wednesday at $68, down 7.62%. The shares are down 6.4% so far on the year. Purely from a risk-versus-reward perspective, TGT is setting up for a nice trade, or possibly 12% move higher. See the chart below, courtesy of TradingView.
With TGT closing at $68 Wednesday, the stock is now technically broken, trading well below its critical 20-day ($78.62), 50-day ($80.72) and 100-day ($76.93) moving averages. At the same time, the 7.6% gap created by the decline makes this trade too good to pass up. Fundamentally, while Target's revenue and guidance missed, this was driven by the fact that the company sold its pharmacy and clinic business to CVS Health (CVS - Get Report) -- an important nugget likely forgotten by investors.
Technically, with near-term support at around $67.60 per share and resistance (red arrow) at $74.60, there's a strong chance that the 7.6% gap get filled. The stock would only need to reach $73.61 to achieve that. During the course of the next couple of weeks, the selling pressure will subside and TGT will attempt to regain its 100-day level at around $76, delivering gains of almost 12%.