Target (TGT - Get Report) shares sold off hard Wednesday after the retailer surprised Wall Street with below-par first quarter same store sales growth, sending Dollar Tree (DLTR - Get Report) shares down in sympathy.
David Miller, portfolio manager for the Catalyst Insider Buying Fund (INSAX), said the dollar store chain will fare just fine over the long run due to heavy insider buying and a recession resistant price-point.
"Dollar Tree's top executives are taking money out of their own pockets to buy more stock which is always a good sign," said Miller. "And when companies like Macy's (M - Get Report) and Nordstrom (JWN - Get Report) were getting slammed in 2008, Dollar Tree was actually up over 60% because when times get tough people shop more at dollar stores, not less."
Dollar Tree's same store sales are estimated to be up 2% for its fiscal 2016 first quarter, compared to Target's 1.2% rise. The Virginia-based discount retailer is set to benefit from the acquisition of Family Dollar, which was completed last July.
Dollar Tree is scheduled to report its fiscal first quarter financial report on May 26. Analysts are estimating earnings of 81 cents per share for the latest quarter, compared with 71 cents per share for the fiscal 2015 first quarter. Revenue is expected to more than double to $5.1 billion for the quarter, compared with $2.18 billion for the same quarter last year.
Miller is similarly bullish on Dollar General (DG - Get Report) , which is up 12% thus far in 2016.
"You have three executives buying shares at Dollar General and that really is a good sign," said Miller. "The beauty of these extreme discounters is that when times are bad for other retailers, they see their sales go up."
Miller is also positive on AutoZone (AZO) , up 2.5% year-to-date, saying insiders are buying the auto parts seller and it performs well when economic times get tough.
"That stock was up in 2008 because when people stop buying new cars they have to keep replacing the parts for their old cars," said Miller.
Finally, Miller is bearish on Restoration Hardware (RH - Get Report) even after the stock has fallen over 60% in the past 12 months.
"Insiders really saw this drop coming, they were selling the stock when it was north of $100 a share," said Miller.