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Corrects percentage of the increase in Toll Brothers' backlog.
The stock market could go lower, but not dangerously low thanks to strong demand, Jim Cramer old his Mad Money viewers Wednesday. While many bearish investors feel the markets are about to enter the abyss, Cramer said he takes a different view, one that looks at actual demand.
Crude prices are often used as a thermometer for the economy, Cramer said, but this metric is simply ridiculous since crude prices factor in both supply and demand and cannot be used as a gauge for demand alone. In fact, demand is quite healthy, it's just being overwhelmed by supply.
What about other resources? Cramer said they can't be relied on either. Copper is being replaced by other metals, while steel has long been a manipulated commodity.
So what does Cramer pay attention to? He said U.S. employment is one metric, and that's doing pretty well at the moment. He looks at housing, where demand remains strong. There is also non-residential construction, where things look pretty good as well.
Investors can look towards Apple (AAPL - Get Report) , an Action Alerts PLUS holding, as a gauge of demand. With all of the major U.S. carriers declaring the iPhone 7 a success, maybe things aren't as weak as the bears would have you believe.
Any one of these metrics alone may be anecdotal, Cramer concluded, but when you add them all up, they become data. According to the data, things aren't great, but they're also not that bad.
After falling from $75 a share in August to just $55 today, Cramer said he's become such a believer in Bristol that he's begun building a position for Action Alerts PLUS.
Bristol entered August near all-time highs, but after a high-profile oncology drug missed its clinical trial targets on Aug. 5 the stock immediately plummeted 16%.
But Cramer noted the reason for the failure was not that the drug didn't work, it just didn't work for everyone. It turns out Bristol had set the bar too high for the trial, hoping to deliver a knock-out blow to its rivals. Even if the drug was a total failure, Cramer continued, it would only represent $5 billion in lost sales for Bristol, far less than the $20 billion in market cap the company lost after the disappointing news.
Bristol-Myers is still a major player in the oncology world, Cramer concluded, and now that estimates are so low the stock is a buy, buy, buy. He cautioned however that as a value stock, it may take months or years for that value to be fully realized. In the meantime, investors can enjoy the stock's 2.75% dividend yield.
Running to Foot Locker
It's been tough to own a retail stock of late, Cramer told viewers. But if you're a big money manager that needs to own a retailer, you need to put your money somewhere, and Cramer thinks they're headed to Foot Locker (FL - Get Report) , a stock he recommended back in June when it traded at just $55 a share.
Cramer said he realized back in June that Foot Locker had suffered a rare stumble after rival Sports Authority liquidated its assets. And sure enough, when the company reported in August, it delivered exactly what he expected with a solid 4.7% increase in same-store sales and positive commentary for the rest of 2016.
Even with shares up 18% from their June lows, Cramer said he still thinks the stock has room to run thanks to a resurgence of Adidas and Foot Locker's remodeling program, which has only renovated 30% of the company's stores thus far.
Add to all those positives the need for money managers to pile into a winner, and Cramer said Foot Locker should continue to outperform the retail sector.
Executive Decision: Doug Yearley
For his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Doug Yearley, CEO of home builder Toll Brothers (TOL - Get Report) , which saw its stock surge 9% after reporting strong earnings that included a 19% increase in the company's backlog.
Yearley said Toll Brothers saw a big opportunity with its stock trading near the company's book value and has purchased 7% of its outstanding shares so far in 2016. He said with sales and margins topping their rivals, now was clearly the time to invest.
When asked about rising interest rates, Yearley said small increases hurt the lower end of the market more than the higher end where Toll operates. He said he would much rather have 4% mortgage rates in a strong economy than 3.5% rates in a weaker one.
Turning to the regions in which Toll operates, Yearley indicated California and the Northeast from Boston to Washington, D.C., continues to be strong, while the Midwest remains slower as job growth remains challenged. Florida was also a bright spot for Toll, but Yearley noted his company needs more land in the state.
In the Lightning Round, Cramer was bullish on Macy's (M - Get Report) , Community Bank System (CBU - Get Report) , Smith & Wesson (SWHC) , Alibaba (BABA - Get Report) , Intrexon (XON - Get Report) and Spectra Energy (SE - Get Report) .
No Huddle Offense
In his "No Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer opined on the negative comments he heard from fund managers at Tuesday's "Delivering Alpha" conference.
According to naysayers, the markets are doomed now that the central bankers around the world are slowly taking away the easy money.
When Boston Scientific acquired Guidant a few years ago, it was viewed as one of the worst acquisitions ever. But today, just a few years later, Boston Scientific is seeing 10% organic growth that tops even the company's own projections. Did this growth stem from monetary policy or interest rates? No, it came from hard work and strong management.
But while Boston Scientific may be too small to be on the radar of big hedge funds, it's not too small for home gamers, Cramer concluded, which is why he talks to individual companies every day.
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