Walmart (WMT) shares dropped sharply in 2015, losing nearly 38% of their value before they bounced off their November lows and began to reverse trend. They have returned to the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of last year's range, but price action is faltering, and the stock is showing signs of technical fatigue.
The move off the lows acquired upward momentum early this year, and in March the 50-day moving average made a golden cross over the 200-day average. Initially, it looked like the first level of Fibonacci resistance would be taken out with little effort, but the stock price stalled, and last month, two high wick candles formed, reflecting the inability to hold new highs. Weekly stochastics are making a bearish crossover and moving lower, and the accumulation/distribution line has flattened after taking out its 21-period signal average. The stock price has moved back below the 38% retracement level, its 50-day average and an uptrend line defining the recent rally.
On the daily timeframe, a wedge-like interior consolidation had been underway for the last two months, above the longer-term uptrend line. During this time, the relative strength index flattened out, and daily moving average convergence/divergence, which is overlaid on the weekly histogram of the oscillator, began moving in negative divergence to the stock price on both timeframes. Even as the golden cross was taking place, Chaikin money flow dropped sharply below its 21-period average and then into negative territory. The money flow index, a volume-weighted relative strength measure, has moved below its centerline and is tracking lower. These price momentum and money flow indicators were early warning signs that the run was losing steam. The interior wedge uptrend line, the 50-day average, and the longer-term uptrend line were taken out in one day's trading, and despite an upper candle close on Monday, yesterday's small "doji" candle was unable to penetrate the first level of support, which has now become resistance.
This three-day price action does not mean that the rally in Walmart is over, and the damage that was done in one day can be just as quickly repaired, but the move is showing signs of fatigue.