With the volatility in the stock and oil markets, investors have been looking to bonds and gold. Here's how to plan how and when to buy them.
U.S. Treasury 30-year bond yield rose to 2.713% last Wednesday after setting its 52-week low of 2.38% on Feb. 11. This volatility gave investors the opportunity to buy the bond at 2.68%, which was last week's key level on technical charts. Short-term traders can reduce holdings if the yield declines to 2.548% this week. But in the longer term, this yield can decline to 2.27% by the end of 2016. The record low yield of 2.221% was set on Jan. 20, 2015.
After Comex gold spiked as high as $1,263.9 on Feb. 11, last week's low of $1,191.5 was an opportunity to enter this "flight to safety" investment at last week's key level of $1,200. This week's key level at $1,221.3 should be a magnet and the upside potential is to $1,638.9 by the end of the year. The ETF to trade as a proxy for gold is the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) , which is backed by gold bullion.
After Nymex crude oil set a 52-week low of $26.05 on Feb. 11, the rebound to as high as $32.99 last week was primarily due to the roll to a longer-term contract. My quarterly key level of $29.90 will be a magnet until the end of March. Oil needs to have a close this week above its key weekly moving average of $33.02 to have a positive weekly chart. The upside for all of 2016 should be limited to $44.07 a barrel. One of the ways to trade oil like a stock is using the iShares GSCI Commodity-Index Trust Fund (GSG) , which is 70% to 75% weighed to energy and crude oil.
The euro vs. the dollar has a positive weekly chart, with its 200-week simple moving average of 1.2527 an upside target. The key level for all of 2016 at 1.1052 provided stability for the euro. Weekly and months key levels are 1.1035 and 1.0928, respectively, with a key level of 1.1786 in play through June. The best ETF that tracks the ups and downs of the dollar is the Deutsche Bank USD Index (UUP) , which is basket of currencies including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.
Here's the weekly chart for the bond ETF.
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The bond ETF closed at $131.01 on Friday, up 8.6% year to date vs. a decline of 6.2% for the S&P 500
The weekly chart for the bond ETF is positive but overbought, with the ETF above its key weekly moving average of $127.24 and well above its 200-week simple moving average of $118.27. The weekly momentum reading ended last week at 80.50, slipping slightly from 80.75 on Feb. 12, but staying above the overbought threshold of 80.00.
Investors looking to buy the bond ETF should enter a good-till-canceled limit order to buy this ETF if it declines to $129.19, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of this week. Investors looking to reduce holdings should enter a GTC limit order to sell this ETF if it rises to $137.62, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of March. An annual level of $132.45 should act as a magnet until the end of 2016.