When It Comes to the Markets, Everyone's an Expert at the Wrong Time

Have you ever noticed that when a stock or sector enters the mainstream conversion, it's usually at the top or bottom. Just think about it for a minute. Here are some examples.

Remember when oil was discussed endlessly around $100? Probably not, because it wasn't. Now that it's dropped 70% in the last two years everyone is an expert on where it's trading and its levels. Check out that volatility in the oil index. Have you ever heard that referenced on TV before the last three months. I asked someone at Exxon recently if they cared about that. He had a good laugh.

When's the first time you heard the term "Master Limited Partnership?" I'm going to guess it was sometime while they were getting cut in half end not when they were doubling and tripling in value while yielding 5%. I'm an owner of Enterprise Products Partners and have been since the summer of 2008. A quarter in a day was a big move, now that happens in an hour, yet there's no shortage of folks who can tell you just which one to buy.

Oil is easy to point to now, but what else. How about McDonald's? Everyone had a reason for why MCD was trading at $90 last year. Chipotle was taking share, better burger places like Shake Shack were pulling customers away. So while everyone tried to solve McDonald's problems, it went from 90 to 120 in a straight line basically in about 12 months. Meanwhile Chipotle and Shake Shack did not, to put it kindly.

Today, it's also required that you have a position on the Federal Reserve. You just do or you're not really credible, right? "This is going to end badly." How many a times have we heard that? It could, I guess; I have no idea. The only thing I'm certain about is my own death one day but I appreciate strong opinions. However, I'm a student of history and I don't recall this sort of global "accommodation" being conducted previously, so I don't really think it's possible to be sure about anything.

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