U.S. stock markets did not trade on Monday but investors were still well aware that more Iranian oil will soon be flowing. The Nymex crude oil responded by setting a 52-week low of $28.36 but then recovered as its key technical level of $29.90 provided a magnet.

In reaction to lower oil prices, Japan's Nikkei 225, China's Shanghai Composite and India's Nifty 50 set new 52-week lows on Monday. The Deutsche Boerse DAX did not set a new low, but remains in bear market territory.

On Tuesday morning, oil traded as high as $31.36 per barrel. A close above Friday's high of $31.18 would be an upside "key reversal" day, where the close is above the prior day's high after setting a new low.

Whenever the U.S. markets are officially closed for holiday, futures contracts still trade. The trades on the holiday are considered the beginning of the next session, which is why Monday's trades are posted on Tuesday.

Here's the daily chart for Nymex crude oil.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The daily chart for crude oil shows that oil has been below a "death cross" since Sept. 3, 2014, with oil trading at $95.54. A "death cross" occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (in blue) declines below the 200-day simple moving average (in green) and indicates risk that lower prices lie ahead.

Observe the last price bar at the lower right. This shows the potential key reversal described above.

On Tuesday, China announced a new round of money printing after the Chinese economic growth seen in 2015 has slowed to the lowest level in 25 years. This has the Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite back above their 2015 lows but the Nifty 50 still lags.

The global rebound in the stock markets seen early Tuesday can also be attributed to this scenario for crude oil. Sell in anticipation of increased oil from Iran, buy on the news that oil will be flowing.

Here's the latest scorecard and key daily charts.

As 2016 began, there were several warnings that 2016 would be the "year of the bear." First of all, every major global equity average began the year with negative weekly charts. Weekly closes were below their key week moving averages and with declining weekly momentum readings. 

It wasn't just the negative weekly charts. Several other warnings were evolving on the daily charts beginning in the first half of 2015. Let's take a look.

All major equity averages began 2015 above "golden cross" patterns where the 50-day simple moving averages were above the 200-day simple moving averages. This configuration indicated that higher prices were likely for at least the first half of 2015.

A warning was the Dow Jones Transportation Average had already peaked with an all-time high of 9,310.33 set on Nov. 28, 2014.

The first index to peak in 2015 was the Nifty 50 with a high of 9,119.20 set on March 4. Then, and despite pledges by the European Central Bank to print money, the German DAX peaked at 12,390.75 on April 10. All-time highs were set for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 at 18,351.36 on May 19 and at 2,134.72 on May 20, respectively.

In June highs were set at 5,178.19 on June 12 for the Shanghai Composite, 1,296.00 for the Russell 2000 on June 23 and 20,952,71 on June 24 for the Nikkei 225.

The final all-time high came from the Nasdaq Composite of 5,231.94 set on July 20.

As highs were being set, the focus shifted to looking for "death cross" formations where the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day simple moving average to warn that lower prices lie ahead. Leading the "death cross" formations was Dow Transports on May 26, then the Nifty 50 on June 15.

When "death cross" formations begin the prudent investment strategy shifts from buying weakness to selling strength. This was my conclusion as the second half of 2015 began.

As you can see, there were technical reasons to reduce holdings before the August crash of the Shanghai Composite.

After the second quarter ended, I noted that the weekly charts were shifting to positive, which indicated stock markets would rally in the fourth quarter. The key was how weekly momentum readings were rising. Momentum uses the last 12 weeks of data, including the highest high and the lowest low. Since markets were well above the flash crash lows the positive signal occurred.

It was then appropriate to shift the trading strategy to the use of Fibonacci retracements from the 2015 highs to the 2015 lows. The sell on strength opportunities occurred as the averages recaptured, 23,6%, 38.4%, 50% and 61.8% retracement levels.

I have been tracking the ups and downs of these markets including the quick cascading lower that's characterized the first two weeks of 2016.

All nine averages ended last week below their 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, four set new 52-week lows last week, and three set lows on Monday. 

Here's the daily chart for Japan's Nikkei 225.

  
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The Nikkei 225 closed Tuesday at 17,048.37, down 10.4% year to date and in correction territory 18.6% below the multiyear high of 20,952.71 set on June 24. The index ended last week below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of 17,858.26 and set a 52-week low of 16,665.05 on Monday. 

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is still feeling the adverse effects of the stock market crash that followed the all-time high set in December 1989. This index ended last week 6.7% below its pre-crash of 2008 high of 18,300 set in March 2007.

Here's the daily chart for China's Shanghai Composite.

  
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The Shanghai Composite had a close of 3,007.74 on Tuesday, down 15% year to date and deep into bear market territory 41.9% below its June 12 multiyear high of 5,178.19. The index ended last week below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of 3,403.55 and set a 52-week low of 2,844.70 on Monday. On the chart it appears as a successful test of the prior low, a potential short-term positive.

In China, the Shanghai Composite has been one of the culprits behind the downside volatility as their bubble within a bubble began to pop in June. The 2015 China bubble caused the flash crash of August 24 and this index stayed well below its October 2007 all-time high of 6,124 below its crash of 2008.

Here's the daily chart for India's Nifty 50.

  
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The Nifty 50 closed at 7,435.10 on Monday down 6.4% year to date and in correction territory 18.5% below its all-time high of 9,119.20 set on March 4. The index ended last week below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of 7,913.77 and set a 52-week low of 7,338.40 on Monday. 

Here's the daily chart for Germany's Deutsche Boerse DAX.

 
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The German DAX closed at 9,521.85 on Monday, down 11.4% year to date and in bear market territory 23.2% below its all-time high of 12,390.75 set on April 10. The index ended Monday below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of 10,047.82 and is just 2.1% above the Sept. 29 low of 9,325.05.

Here's the daily for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Dow Industrials closed at 15,988.08 on Friday, down 8.2% year to date and in correction territory 12.9% below its all-time high of 18.351.36 set on May 19. The index ended last week below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of 16.074.38 and is 4% above its Aug. 24 low of 15,370.33.

Here's the daily for the S&P 500.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The S&P 500 closed at 1,880.33 on Friday, down 8% year to date and is in correction territory 11.9% below its all-time high of 2,134.72 set on May 20. The index ended last week below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of 1,930.22 and set a 52-week low of 1,857.83 set on Jan. 15.

Here's the daily for the Nasdaq Composite.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The Nasdaq closed at 4,488.42 on Friday, down 10.4% year to date and is in correction territory 14.2% below its all-time high of 5,231.94 set on July 20. The index ended last week below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of 4,513.67 and is 4.6% above its Aug. 24 low of 4,292.14.

Here's the daily for the Dow Jones Transportation Average.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Dow Transports closed at 6,689.06 on Friday, down 10.9% year to date and in bear market territory 28.2% below its all-time high of 9,310.33 set on Nov. 28, 2014. Transports already crashed below its Aug. 24 low of 7,452.70 and set a 52-week low of 6,560.11 on Jan. 15.

Here's the daily for the Russell 2000.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The Russell 2000 closed at 1,007.72 on Friday down 11.3% year to date and in bear market territory 22.2% below its all-time high of 1,296.00 set on June 23. The small-caps index crashed below its Sept. 29 low of 1,078.63 on Jan. 7 and set a 52-week low of 983.98 on Jan. 15.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.