Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.


2016's Consensus Views


Originally published at 9:30 a.m. EST on December 31 , 2015

I rolled out my 15 Surprises for 2016 earlier this week to run down my list of "possible improbables" that smart investors should prepare for just in case they happen next year.

But here are what I see as the major consensus expectations for 2016 (most of which I disagree with):

  • U.S. real gross domestic product will grow 2.5%.
  • Global real GDP is be +3.5%.
  • Inflation will remain quiescent.
  • Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes will be subdued.
  • Oil prices will remain low.
  • U.S. stocks will rise 8% to 10%.
  • The bifurcation and weakening leadership that we saw throughout 2015 won't impede the advancing U.S. stock market in 2016.
  • Mergers and buybacks will continue apace.

Most of these consensus views are decidedly market friendly (but I'm not).

Position: Short AAPL, SPY, TSLA (small)



Five Also-Ran Surprises for 2016

Originally published at 1:19 p.m. EST on December 31 , 2015
Here are five runners-up to my 15 Surprises for 2016:
  • Surprise No. 17: Hovnanian Enterprises  (HOV - Get Report) files bankruptcy.
  • Surprise No. 18: Subscriber growth resumes at Twitter  (TWTR - Get Report) .
  • Surprise No. 19: Pete Rose is named to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.
Position: Long M, TWTR, ALL; Short BRK.B

At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were short AAPL and SPY, BRK.B and TSLA, and long M, TWTR, and ALL although holdings can change at any time.

Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.