Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.
2016's Consensus Views
I rolled out my 15 Surprises for 2016 earlier this week to run down my list of "possible improbables" that smart investors should prepare for just in case they happen next year.
But here are what I see as the major consensus expectations for 2016 (most of which I disagree with):
- U.S. real gross domestic product will grow 2.5%.
- Global real GDP is be +3.5%.
- Inflation will remain quiescent.
- Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes will be subdued.
- Oil prices will remain low.
- U.S. stocks will rise 8% to 10%.
- The FANGs -- Facebook (FB - Get Report) , Amazon (AMZN - Get Report) , Netflix (NFLX - Get Report) and Google/Alphabet (GOOG - Get Report) , (GOOGL - Get Report) -- will continue to lead the market.
- The bifurcation and weakening leadership that we saw throughout 2015 won't impede the advancing U.S. stock market in 2016.
- Mergers and buybacks will continue apace.
Most of these consensus views are decidedly market friendly (but I'm not).
Five Also-Ran Surprises for 2016
- Surprise No. 16: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A - Get Report) (BRK.B - Get Report) acquires Macy's (M - Get Report) .
- Surprise No. 19: Pete Rose is named to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.