Conoco are up just shy of 3.5% and are challenging last month's high near $56.70. This impressive move follows a month-long consolidation and puts shares on course for more upside. ConocoPhillips appears headed for the first retest of its 200-day moving average in over a year. Investors should expect another 4% of upside before a healthy pullback develops.
Conoco's surge off the late September lows included eight straight positive closes. During this rally phase, the stock surged nearly 25%. By Oct. 8, the run began to show signs of exhaustion and quickly gave way to a consolidation. Three weeks later, ConocoPhillips was retesting a key support zone near the $51-to-$52 area. The stock held this area quite easily as selling pressure contracted. The healthy gain last Thursday was a clear sign that the consolidation had run its course. The breakout that followed as this week began confirmed this.
In the near term, investors should consider ConocoPhillips a buy on weakness. The stock now has a fresh layer of support in place near last week's high of $54.60. If a pullback is needed before the October peak of $56.70 is convincingly cleared, this level should be considered a buy zone.
Once last month's high is taken out, Conoco will make a run at its 200-day moving average. The area surrounding the 200-day is a heavy resistance zone. Just above this indicator is the 2014 low as well as the first-quarter 2015 lows. This zone runs from $60.85 to $60.50. ConocoPhillip's 200-day, which has been trending lower since January, sits at $59.20. It's very likely the stock will need a significant consolidation before the $61 area is conquered. Investors should consider view a test of this zone as an opportunity to book partial profits.