The daily chart for Tesla Motors (TSLA - Get Report) shows that the stock began 2015 decelerating from an all-time high set in September 2014 and with downside risk to its negative weekly chart.

Up or down reactions to earnings reports have the stock in a trading range. The 52-week low was set in March following an earnings miss in February. As the stock began to accelerate, a positive reaction in May set the course for strength to the 2015 high, set in July.

An earnings miss on Aug. 5 made the stock vulnerable to the flash crash on Aug. 24, or "Black Monday." This makes Tesla's outlook for Chinese sales an important component in the earnings report scheduled to be released after the closing bell on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Analysts expect Tesla to report a loss of 48 cents a share, with revenue above year-ago levels. A key metric will be sales of the Model X SUV.

Here's the daily chart for Tesla.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The daily chart shows that Tesla had a close of $206.93 on Friday, down 16.7% in October and down 7% year to date. The stock is in bear market territory, 29% below its all-time high of $291.42, set on Sept. 4, 2014.

The stock began 2015 at $222.41, below its 200-day simple moving average, then at $230.02. The stock will crisscross this key moving average three times year to date, with this average little changed at $232.15. The 2015 low of $181.40 was set on March 27.

When a stock has up and down volatility, a good technical strategy is to set the Fibonacci Retracements from the 2014 high to the 2015 low. This will provide good guidepost levels following Tuesday's earnings report. The stock ended last week just below its 23.6% retracement of $207.24. On a negative reaction to earnings, the key level is thus the year-to-date low of $181.40. On a positive reaction to earnings, the upside is to the 38.2% retracement of $223.42.

Here's the weekly chart for Tesla.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart for Tesla is negative, with the stock below its key weekly moving average of $229.41, and way above its 200-week simple moving average of $143.67. This stock has not yet tested its 200-week in its publicly traded life.

The weekly momentum reading ended last week at 37.81, down from 44.09 on Oct. 23. Momentum scales from 00.00 to 100.00, with a reading below 20.00 oversold and a reading above 80.00 overbought. A rising reading above 20.0 is positive while a declining reading below 80.00 is negative. This study is shown in red along the bottom of the chart.

Investors looking to buy Tesla should place a good till canceled limit order to buy the stock if its drops to $152.07, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of 2015.

Investors looking to reduce holdings should place a good till canceled limit order to sell the stock if it rises to $255.04, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of 2015.


This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.