NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Ultra Petroleum  (UPL - Get Report) had an ultra-impressive rally from 2001 to 2008. Our "back of the envelope" math suggests a 100x markup. See chart below.

I can imagine some investors became millionaires or multi-millionaires on that rally even if they did not buy at the bottom and sell at the top.

The story about UPL changed and prices have been declining now for several years. But today we are suggesting a technical rally for UPL that is hopefully not just another false start.

In this chart of UPL, above, we can see that prices are showing some better action. We can see that prices have rallied over the 50-day simple moving average.

There is a bullish divergence from the momentum study, and for the first time, we can see the On-Balance-Volume line starting to advance. A rising OBV line will be key to how long and how far UPL can advance.

The chart doesn't show and we wouldn't suggest another mega-rally for UPL, but at least a rally to the $10-$12 area. It's a start.