NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- With the third quarter wrapping up last week, what did we learn from the market? One helpful form of analysis is to look at the best performing dividend stocks to see if any trends emerge.
Our search for the 10 best dividend stocks of the third quarter looked at dividend-paying stocks with market caps greater than $400 million and a current dividend yield of at least 2%. We also excluded stocks that received offers to be acquired.
The third quarter was marked by extreme market volatility compared to recent years, and the S&P 500 ended up dropping by nearly 7%. As the third quarter progressed, stock market volatility increased as macro data continued disappointing, capped off by last week's underwhelming U.S. payroll report.
According to an article in Bloomberg, the odds of the Fed increasing rates in October have plunged to a mere 10%, and markets are now pricing in the Fed to raise rates in March with two increases in each of the next two years. The odds of the Fed increasing rates at the December 2015 meeting sit just under 40%.
With reduced expectations for a looming rate increase, bonds and low-growth, high-yield dividend stocks were bid up. As seen below, global yields tumbled from about 1.2% at the end of June to less than 1% by the start of October.
As rates fell, many dividend stocks did very well. The 10 stocks below recorded the highest total return during the period from June 30, 2015, to September 30, 2015.
Not surprisingly, the list includes a handful of REITs, which are generally negatively correlated with interest rates over short time periods, and a couple of low-growth telecom companies.
With the third quarter in the past and lowered expectations for a rate increase only lasting so long, what will happen to dividend stocks once rates start to rise? Which stocks will sit on the fourth quarter's best performing dividend stocks list?
We can look at history to learn what happened to dividend stocks during past periods marked by rising rates. We conducted a full study on the matter, which you can view here.
Essentially, the first few months immediately following a rate increase were marked with volatility and underperformance. Within one year, however, dividend payers who did not cut their dividends during the period had completely recovered and were well on their way to continued gains over the next two years.
For now, let's take a look at last quarter's biggest winners, from lowest total return to highest:CUBE data by YCharts
10. CubeSmart (CUBE)
Third quarter return: 18%
Dividend Yield: 2.3%
CubeSmart is a Malvern, Pa.-based REIT that operates self-storage facilities.