NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Expect Apple (AAPL) stock to nearly double in value and hit $200-a-share a year from now, say analysts at Drexel Hamilton in New York.
Pointing to "overblown" fears about the Chinese market for cell phones, as well as the "sharp correction" that Apple experienced over the summer, the brokerage firm is forecasting another major growth cycle for the California-based tech giant.
"Despite a slowing economic backdrop, our recent trip to China further supports our view that Apple fever is alive and well across the country," analyst Brian White wrote in an Oct. 1 note to investors. "We estimate the company will gain share in the global smartphone market in 2015."
Shares of Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple were sliding 1.1% on Friday to $108.34 and were down nearly 6% since announcing it sold a record 13 million iPhone 6s and 6s Plus units in its opening weekend.
Apple suffered major losses in July and August as part of wider market volatility inspired by poor growth numbers in China, falling 22% to $103.12 from a high of $132.07.
The lynchpin for Apple growth, Wall Street agrees, is iPhone market share in China. Sales of the device account for roughly two-thirds of the company's revenue, while Mac sales generate roughly 12% of annual revenue, with the iPad generating 10% of revenue. The prevailing thinking says that if the iPhone can reach a broader class of consumer in China and grab market share away from Samsung and Chinese manufacturers, Apple will be in good shape for a long time to come.
White also pointed out that China's 4G cellphone infrastructure is relatively young and "only 12% penetrated," leaving a lot of room for development. This is something Apple CEO Timothy D. Cook has pointed out as well. On the company's fiscal third quarter earnings call, Cook said Apple achieved 112% year-over-year revenue growth, with "iPhone unit growth of 87%."
Expansion into India is another theme of the report, which views the Indian market as a second China, just waiting in the wings.
"During 3Q, iPhone units grew by 93% year-over-year in India and slightly above the 87% growth in Greater China," White wrote. "We believe Apple has already started investing for the ramp of the mobile Internet in India and we view the country at a similar stage as China was for Apple in 2010."