NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- A bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed on the Marriott International  ( MAR - Get Report) chart.  A successful break above neckline resistance projects a 12% gain in the stock price. 


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The left shoulder of the pattern developed in early August, the head formed later in the month and at a 38% retracement of the October 2012 low and the 2015 high, and the right shoulder formed last week. This week the $73 neckline, which is being reinforced by the 50-day moving average, is being retested, and a successful breakout suggests a pattern price projection to the $82 area.

The momentum indicators at the top of the chart reflect the recent positive price action. Daily moving average convergence/divergence is overlaid on a weekly histogram, and the indicator is trending higher on both timeframes. The relative strength index is above both its signal average and centerline. At the bottom of the chart is the accumulation/distribution line, which is back above its 21-period average, as well as the volume-weighted money flow index, which has crossed above its centerline. Volume is light, but the direction of money flow is positive.
 
If the stock does in fact break above the neckline, there are still technical hurdles ahead, in the form of the five-month downtrend line and the 200-day moving average, but Marriott International is set up as a good risk/reward trade. The stock is a buy after a strong close above $73 neckline resistance, with an initial stop under the $70 right shoulder.

Disclosure: This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.