NEW YORK (Kitco News) -- As gold prices breathed a sigh of relief after Monday's selloff, one analyst said the metal may be near its bottom.
Commenting on the $50 drop in gold prices yesterday, Todd "Bubba" Horwitz, founder at Average Joe Options.com said it was simply a "blowoff to the downside" as a seller came into the market Sunday night and dropped 27,000 contracts within 10 minutes. "That to me calls for a blow-off bottom," he told Kitco News on Tuesday. Horwitz added that the metal rallied back up about $30. "I think that's a great sign that the bottom is possibly near, if not in already," he explained. Gold prices ended the U.S. day session just modestly lower Tuesday, following Monday's drop which saw the metal hit a five-year low. Kitco's spot gold price was last up $5.60 at $1,103.30 an ounce.
Horwitz said that although this could be considered a "dead cat bounce," he is optimistic. "Everything we know that could drive the price of gold lower is basically priced into the market -- all the bad news is in," he said. "I think this is a great spot [for gold] as a hard asset that people should own," he added.
As commodity indices hit multi-year lows, with Bloomberg's Commodity Index at levels last seen in 2002, Bubba said this may give the U.S. Federal Reserve another reason to stall on rate hikes. "They are looking for every reason not to raise rates," he said. "Janet Yellen has no courage, she's not going to raise rates," he added.
Horwitz's theory is that the economic data does not support a rate hike and he is not expecting a move until 2016. Horwitz added that former Fed-head Ben Bernanke missed the opportunity in 2013. "Bernanke choked and let the traders take over, now they are too busy day trading the market."
As to whether the news of China's central bank reporting its gold reserves impacted gold, Horwitz isn't biting. Last week, the People's Bank of China reported gold reserves of 53 million ounces; up 57% from the last time it reported reserves six years ago. Many in the gold market questioned the numbers and whether China revealed its true figures. "I don't believe in numbers. I believe that China is actually selling gold on the surface, in the meantime they're buying through the back door."