NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Crude oil remains under pressure as supply and demand fundamentals are strained, due to a lack of entities and companies drawing down the product.
Meanwhile, Iran and six other global powers, led by the United States, have reached a historic agreement on the future of Iran's nuclear programs. Part of this agreement will lift sanctions on Iran, which means Iranian oil will flood the global market. Iran could add as much as 500,000 barrels per day, further exasperating the oil supply glut.
Luke Rahbari of Stutland Volatility Group tells TheStreet's Jill Malandrino he looks at crude in even numbers and expects it to trade in the $50-$55 range in the near term. Rahbari does not think Iran has the ability to pump crude until 2016 and he sees Iraq, Nigeria and Libya has the main wild cards because the production schedule out of those countries can be quite irregular. It is never quite clear if production will be picked up, or dropped off.
In addition, Rahbari is concerned with geopolitical issues like ISIS and the potential impact it could have in Iraq. Domestically, the U.S. is not seeing the seasonal draw down in the refined crude products that you would expect to see with the volume of summer driving. Demand for crude tends to be weak from Labor Day to the end of October, as consumers drive less during this period and refineries shut down for maintenance.
Rahbari says the other major variable for oil prices is swing producers, like Saudi Arabia, for example, because it has the ability to cut or increase production in support of crude. While Rahbari sees crude trading in a $50 to $55 range, he reminds investors that when it shocks the market, it is usually to the upside so it is always important to monitor what happens geopolitically, especially in sensitive regions like the Middle East where it can have a major influence on oil production.