After another session of extreme volatility the index held onto a gain of 2.4%, closing at 3,775.91, up 15.3% year to date but 27.1% below the bubble peak of 5,178.19 set on June 12. From high to low the index plunged almost 30% in only 14 trading session losing nearly $1 trillion in market value.
Stemming the deflation of the popping bubble is a pledge by brokers and fund managers to buy massive positions of stocks. This is backed by China's state-backed margin finance company, through a flood of liquidity from the central bank. In addition China arm-twisted dozens of firms to scrap upcoming IPOs.
Back on June 23, I warned that the Shanghai Composite could be the first stock market bubble to pop. The reasons cited were the huge margin debt and the crowded calendar of initial public offerings.
Today it is estimated 17% of the Shanghai Composite is owned on margin debt, and today's measures are an attempt to stabilize any further unraveling of this leaking market support. The freeze in initial public offerings was ordered by financial regulators on Friday afternoon and 28 deals have been postponed.
Here's the updated weekly chart for the Shanghai Composite, courtesy of MetaStock Xenith.
The weekly chart for the Shanghai Composite shows the Fibonacci Retracements of the 72.8% Crash of 2008, which began from the all-time intraday high of 6,124 in October 2007 to the low of 1,665 set in October 2008.
Monday's open was above the 50% retracement level of 3,890.78 with a day's high of 3,975.21. From this high the index slumped 8.1% to 3,653.04 before recovering to end the session up 2.4% with a close of 3,775.91.
Note how the 38.2% retracement of 3,364.65 is an important support on further weakness. This level stopped the recovery off the October 2008 low from July 2009 all the way to the beginning of April 2015 when stock market speculation accelerated. The cycle high of 5,178.19 set on June 12 was well above the 61.8% retracement of 4,416.91.
The weekly chart is clearly negative with the Shanghai Composite below its key weekly moving average of 4,214.71 with weekly momentum projected to decline to 44.61 this week down from 60.82 on July 3.
Here's the daily chart for the Shanghai Composite.
From left to right the Shanghai Composite stuck trading back and forth around its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages until July 24, 2014 when the 200-day SMA was just 2,089.08. The "golden cross" occurred on August 15 when the 50-day crossed above the 200-day. The index has been below its 50-day simple moving average now at 4,557.20 since June 25 and the 200-day simple moving average is the short-term reversion to the mean at 3,410.67.