NEW YORK (Real Money Pros) -- There are more scenarios than we can shake a stick at, but here we go, from best to worst for our stock market:
- Germany figures out that Greece is going to gravitate to Russia and China, like Venezuela, and offers a sweet deal to Greece that amounts to a substantial cut in debt. This is the ideal scenario and sparks a huge rally. Euro goes through the roof. Odds -- kind of like beating American Pharoah.
- Greece unveils drachma printing press, a line of credit from Russia for the amount that the IMF is owed and sells a new issue of bonds to China. Another triumph over American Pharoah that could cause a big rally and euro does fine, not great.
- Greece says it wants to stay in the euro union but won't pay the money. Not all that good a scenario, because that amounts to no resolution and a gun to Germany's head. This one could be perceived as blackmail, because the subtext would be "we are going with Russia if you kick us out."
- Greece agrees to some terms that don't amount to a big haircut and gets back in the game. In many ways, this is horrendous because Greece can't pay any terms. We will be back in the soup in six months.
- Greece tells Europe that the referendum says the people want to default but Greece has no back-up plan whatsoever, and there's just a gaping black hole until things are fixed. This is the most likely and, unfortunately, the worst.