NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Crises battle plans are all about what the other guy is going to do, not you. So, for Monday, we have to figure that there will be two types of money taking action: those trying to profit from the end of Greece and those caught on the wrong side of it.
Neither should be met with your buying, because it would be foolish to help out either cohort. The first, the profiteering hedge funds, want to get a short off as low as down 1%, hoping that S&P will fall 2% minimum, so they can make a decent return.
The second, those on the wrong side of Greece -- whatever that side turns out to be -- is trying to save its year or itself entirely and probably has more to unload than you think. These are so-called dangerous sellers, who will cause people in the media to evoke Lehman because that's what you do if you are in the media. You always try to use the worst benchmark.
That's the pattern no matter what the calamity is and you MUST let it play out.
Now, how about the actual issues? We would have an easy time of things if so many people hadn't decided that the Greeks were negotiating in good faith -- they never were -- or that the Germans had an intention of massive forgiveness (there was never a chance for that). The media covered these talks so poorly that they led you to believe that these were reasonable counterparts. So there was far more complacency than would normally be the case.