Takeaways and Observations
Originally published at 1:31 PM EDT on June 26, 2015
Friday's takeaways and observations:
- Greece is the word ...
- ... but so is China.
- That said, the bond market is Friday's most important story, with yields at a new 2015 high. I'm a bit surprised considering the macroeconomic backdrop. I still think a 2.50% yield on the 10-year Treasury is at or near the top for 2015, and I believe the yield curve will actually flatten when a fed-funds hike arrives.
- The second-most-important story today is the Nasdaq, which appears to be rolling over. (I added to my short of the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) June 22 week.) The revenue shortfall at Micron Technology (MU) might have broader implications than is generally understood.
- I think the S&P 500 is running on fumes.
- I don't see much in the way of market leadership today, excluding health care and banks. A narrowing market isn't constructive, and I'll have more to say about that on Monday morning.
- I'm watching in awe given the large recent gains in Facebook (FB) that several commentators and analysts are so self-confident as to buy the social-media giant or initiate Buy recommendations at current prices. It's not the pro-Facebook sentiment that I object to, but the self-confidence in a market where the only certainty is uncertainty.
- I've expanded my net short exposure all week, even in the face of what I expect will be short-lived rally early next week on a likely Greek agreement.
- The Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF (SPXS), the triple-leveraged inverse S&P ETF that I bought at $17.37 on Wednesday, is my favorite short-term vehicle right now. It just traded at over $18.05.