Ford is now driving through a very heavy resistance area near its declining 50- and 200-day moving averages. If shares can maintain this momentum through the end of the week, a very solid rally could be on the way.
Since the March peak, Ford has been stuck in a somewhat sloppy bear channel. As April began, price action contracted dramatically as the pattern wore on. In early May, the stock fell below a rather ominous moving average configuration. With Ford below declining 50- and 200-day moving averages, overhead pressure was steadily increasing. It appeared that this month would include a retest of the stock's 2015 low at $14.30 set back in late February, but by early last week, it was becoming obvious the downside pressure had run its course.
Ford began to turn last Wednesday, and by this Monday, the stock was back near the upper band of its 12-week bear channel. Yesterday shares broke through the trend line but were still constrained by the 200-day moving average. Today this key level, $15.40, is giving way as the rally off last week's low extends to 5.5%.
Ford is now set up well for a healthy run and is leaving behind layers of support as the breakout gains traction. The stock is a low-risk buy between $15.50 and $15.25.
This nearby support zone includes Ford's initial June high as well as last week's peak. A close below this week's low of $15.10 would indicate more basing will be needed before Ford can mount a meaningful rally. The initial upside target is the April high of $16.15. A pullback/consolidation from this level would set the stock up well for a run at its 2015 high of $16.75.