Bond Yields, Gold, Oil, Dollar Are Still Shaken by Fed; Here's How to Trade Them

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of 2015 prior to last week's Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Statement, press conference and comments by Fed Chief Janet Yellen. Then yields consolidated. Comex gold rebounded to a test of its 200-day simple moving average, while Nymex crude oil and the euro vs. the dollar stayed between their 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages.

Here's the latest trading setups for these markets and daily charts, courtesy of MetaStock Xenith.

Let's start by analyzing the trends for the U.S. Treasury 10-year note and 30-year bond, then analyze the daily chart for 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is down 5.4% year to date, with a negative but oversold weekly chart.

The yield on the 10-year note declined from a 2015 high of 2.5% on June 11 to as low as 2.258% on June 19, above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, which converged at 2.161% and 2.162%, respectively.

The yield on the 30-year bond declined from a 2015 high of 2.227% on June 11 to as low as 3.035% on June 17, and is above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of 2.891% and 2.835%, respectively, which is a "death cross" for the bond market. Higher yields indicate lower bond prices.

Here's the daily chart for the bond exchange-traded fund.

Investors seeking the safety of the U.S. Treasury market can trade yields like a stock using the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. This exchange-traded fund is a basket of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 20 years to 30 years. The price of the bond ETF rises when yields are falling and declines when yields are rising.

The bond ETF had a close of $119.08 on Friday, down 5.4% year to date after trading as low as $115.26 on June 10. The bond ETF is below the bond price "death cross," with its 50-day simple moving average of $122.58, below its 200-day simple moving averages of $124.08. A key level on technical charts of $114.44 should continue to hold on weakness until the end of June.

Up next: gold.

Here's the daily chart for the gold exchange-traded fund.

Investors looking to invest in gold like a stock should consider the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which is backed by gold bullion and corresponds to Comex Gold futures contracts.

The gold ETF had a close of $115.12 on Friday, up 1.4% year to date and between its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $114.55 and $115.97, respectively. Weakness into the end of June should be limited to key levels on technical charts of $113.41 and $112.41.

Here's the daily chart for the commodity index ETF.

Investors trading crude oil like a stock are using the iShares GSCI Commodity-Index Trust Fund (GSG), which is 70% to 75% weighted to energy and crude oil.

The commodity ETF had a close of $20.72 on Friday, down 4% year to date -- below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $21.17 and $23.21, respectively. This ETF has seen higher lows since trading as low as $18.81 on Jan. 29. A slightly higher low of $18.83 on March 18 proved to be a key reversal, with a close above the prior day's high. These lows should hold on weakness with upside potential to a key level technical charts of $24.02, which does not expire until the end of 2015.

 Up next: trading the dollar.

Here's the daily chart for the Dollar Index ETF.

The Deutsche Bank USD Index (UUP) represents the U.S. dollar versus a basket of currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.

The dollar ETF had a close off $24.68 on Friday, up 3% year to date, and about midway between its 200-day simple moving average of $24.33 and its 50-day simple moving average of $25.20. Below this range is a key level on technical charts of $23.42, which expires at the end of June. Above the range is another key level of $26.59, which also expires at the end of June. If the dollar continues to strengthen, the upside potential is into the technical level range of $40.88 to $46.20, which do not expire until the end of 2015.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no position in the stocks mentioned.

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