NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- At times, it seems like speculation on interest-rate hikes have been going on almost as long as the Fed's near-zero interest rate policy.
While most banks are confident that rates won't be raised this week, opinions vary as to what will happen in September. Bank of America (BAC), for one, is so confident the Fed will act then that it has started a virtual countdown clock.
The Charlotte, N.C.-based company is one of several banks that released reports in the past few days analyzing both the timing of an increase and its effects. In a note boldly titled "The Thundering Word," Michael Hartnett, the bank's chief investment strategist, wrote that there are 66 trading days to go until the Fed raises rates. While other banks spoke of a "likely" or "near certain" September rate-hike, Bank of America doubled down by providing a timeline of trades as the Fed unwinds its years of easy monetary policy.
"Using the classic Fed roadmap," Hartnett wrote, traders will invest in emerging markets and U.S. stocks on June 17, three months before the hike, while shorting gold, the euro and the Japanese yen. On Sept 17, presuming the Fed raises rates then, they'll go long on commodities and short U.S. stocks. Later, as rates climb higher, investors will allocate more to Europe, emerging market equities, U.S. technology stocks and cut exposure to investment-grade bonds, he wrote.
Goldman Sachs (GS) took a much more cautious approach to the timing of the first rate hike. A note written by Kris Dawsey, U.S. economist at the New York-based bank, went with an undisputable fact: "The expected date of the first hike in the federal funds rate is closer than it has been at any point so far in the recovery."
While much has been said about Goldman Sachs' extensive reach, the bank has not so far been able to alter the space-time continuum in such a way as to make that statement more true in the past than in the present.
Goldman says a rate hike remains likely in September even though it hinted in a note in early June that such a move may not be prudent. Still, the market has already priced in a 60-65% probability of an increase, the bank said.