NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Greece is making it tough to trust even the most bullish of the bull charts right now. We'll have to see if the buy-the-dip mentality comes into play this week or if we reach a point where traders are indifferent about the situation with Greece.
Mobileye (MBLY) caught my attention Friday with a solid follow through from a breakout move on Thursday. Enough so that I started a position, but I'm looking for more. I like to have two target entries for most breakout stocks. The first is a continued breakout move, preferably after some confirmation. The second is a pullback bounce from just above the breakout.
If we do see the second because of overall market weakness, then I would be looking for a pullback into the $48-$49 area, but certainly not below $48. Then, I would be buying the stock after it makes its first higher close. Another approach would be selling bullish put spreads here using the previous channel for the legs. For instance, selling a $48-$46 or $48-$45 put spread out into July or beyond seems logical.
Obviously, I would prefer to see continued strength. The stock trading between $50 and $52 here for a few days, especially if the market stays red, would be a good sign. Then, I would look to add to the position on the next close over $52. The recent pick-up in volume either by the simple volume chart or the continued climb/consolidation/climb on the accumulation/distribution indicator is further confirmation of the bullish move.
Unfortunately, Mobileye doesn't have a long history, so I take the weekly chart with a grain of salt since I have to use shorter eight-period measurements to get some feel. After a strong post-IPO period, Mobileye consolidated in a falling wedge for six months to finally break out on a strong reversal in March. After a nice push higher, we've spent six weeks in a bullish flag with the breakout coming last week.
Last week was so strong that it actually hit what I would have labeled the first target. Sometimes that happens and you simply miss that part of the move. However, there would be continued upside here targeting the high $50s, possibly reaching $60, over the next two months. The Force Index turning bearish gave us a pretty good tip the first time of an impending drop in the stock. The Vortex Indicator bearish crossover was the next best indicator, followed by a bearish crossover in the RSI.
Granted, this comes from very limited data, but it's the best we have to go by at the moment. A cross of price back under $47.5 or a bearish cross by both the Force Index and Vortex Indicator would negate the weekly bull stance and put me on the sidelines. For now though, this is one name with momentum working while the market has stalled a bit. I'm in.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 9:48 a.m. EDT on Real Money on June 15.