NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- U.S. Treasury yields rose to new 2015 highs last week as investors expect the Federal Reserve to strongly hint that it will slowly but surely begin to raise the federal funds rate in September, with additional hikes dependent on what future economic data reveals.
Comex gold consolidated above an uptrend on its daily chart. Nymex crude oil and the euro versus the dollar traded between rising 50-day simple moving averages and declining 200-day simple moving averages.
Let's start by analyzing the trends for 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds, then look at the daily chart for 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) which is down 6.3% year to date and has a negative weekly chart.
The yield on the 10-year not has been trending above its 200-day simple moving average of 2.163% since June 1, and set its 2015 high of 2.5% on June 11. The yield on the 30-year bond has been above its 200-day simple moving average since May 5, and last tested this average on May 29, when the average was 2.836%. The 2015 high yield was 3.227%, set on June 11.
Here's the daily chart for the bond exchange-traded fund.
Investors seeking the safety of the Treasury market can trade yields like a stock using the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. This exchange-traded fund is a basket of Treasury bonds with maturities of 20 to 30 years. The price of the ETF rises when yields are falling and declines when yields are rising. And yields tend to fall when interest rates rise, and vice versa.
The bond ETF closed at $117.95 on Friday, down 6.3% year-to-date, and below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $123.79 and $124.08, respectively. The 50-day is crossing below the 200-day in what technicians call a "death cross" for bonds.
A key level on technical charts of $114.44 should hold as the low end of trading until the end of June, as the expected rise in interest rates is likely factored into recent bond market weakness. If the FOMC maintains its dovish attitude towards raising interests rates, the bond ETF could retrace losses up to a key level on technical charts of $132.13, which will not expire until the end of 2015.
Here's the daily chart for the gold exchange-traded fund.
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The gold ETF closed at $113.23 on Friday, down just 0.3% year-to-date, and below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $114.69 and $116.19, respectively. It has been in a death cross since Sept. 19. Note that its cycle low was $109.67, set on Nov. 5. This is a longer-term bottoming pattern before money flows back into gold if stocks slump.
A key weekly technical level of $112.35 will be a key level to hold on additional weakness. A trend above another technical level of $113.41 should enhance the upside. The upside potential above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages is to the 200-week simple moving average of $139.89.