TubeMogul Pushes Forward Through Lots of Volatility

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- To be a TubeMogul (TUBE) investor is to have a stomach for volatility.

Shares of the Emeryville, Calif.-based advertising technology company have fallen for five days running, or 11.6%. Late last month, the stock went on a three-day tear, climbing 12%.

TubeMogul's latest dip was tied to a secondary stock offering of five million shares, worsening an already difficult year. The stock, which closed at $14.65 Monday, has lost 35% so far in 2015.

"The number of new private companies is falling, as well as the size and scale of other ad tech companies," said Rohit Kulkarni, analyst at JMP Securities. "There are selective winners out there, which is why we like Rubicon Project (RUBI) and TubeMogul."

Seven of the nine analysts following TubeMogul have issued positive recommendations for the company, with a consensus price target of $21, only $2 lower than its all-time high reached in December.

Throughout its dips and occasional surges, TubeMogul's story has remained the same: The company operates a advertising platform that allows marketers the opportunity to buy advertising space on thousands of Web sites in real time. The ad-tech market is expected to surpass $20 billion in ad sales by 2016, according to The Wall Street Journal. The market is set to expand as it takes advantage of the mobile market, which is estimated to be 56% of the total display ad spending in 2015.
Yet, surviving long enough to take advantage of that demand may present an issue. TubeMogul acknowledged in its stock prospectus that it has a history of losses, and that it may not be able to "achieve or sustain profitability in the future."

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