Bulls Take 2 Out of 3 in Game of Worries
Posted at 11:16 a.m. EDT on Friday, June 5, 2015
Here's a classic relief rally based on the conclusion of three big worries: employment, oil and Greece.
Employment was too strong and it is sending interest rates higher and the dollar into a tizzy. Just point blank bad for the consumer packaged goods but excellent for the banks. I think there will be plenty of people saying we will have a June rate hike on this -- I am not one of them -- but beware of the chatter. Rates up -- good for the banks. Bad for pretty much everything else.
Oil is real positive. The statement about status quo shows that the Saudis are watching our rig count go down so they don't need to pump even more and they seem sanguine about the fact that current production is still running higher than last year. I would have thought that they might put the screws to America again. They aren't.
Greece? The insane melodrama is now pushed back again and the deadlines are all phony again but its backburnered again.
That means two out of three for the bulls. I do not like the dollar here. It can derail everything from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to 3M (MMM). Industrials and pharma are a terrible thing to lose even as we keep the fins off of higher rates.