NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- While Wall Street bankers abandon the city for summer homes in the Hamptons, lawmakers and judges will be stuck in the nation's notoriously humid capital, making decisions -- or not, as the case may be -- that Goldman Sachs (GS) predicts will move markets here and around the world.
The New York-based bank identified six of the summer's hot-button political issues in a report last week and gauged some of the probable outcomes.
1. -- The House is likely to vote in favor of Trade Promotion Authority in the next few weeks.
Trade Promotion Authority, also known as "fast track," allows the president to negotiate trade agreements with foreign partners within parameters set by Congress. Once the agreement is negotiated, Congress gets a yay or nay vote on the agreement but it cannot make amendments to the terms. The procedure is designed to make passing trade agreements faster as any potential holdups between the President and Congress are ideally settled before negotiations begin and has been enacted several times since 1974.
The Obama administration is relying on Republican support to pass the bill, but by Goldman's measure, the president will also need the support of 10 to 20 Democrats. It's particularly important now, since the administration is wrapping up discussions for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, which includes 12 nations in the Pacific Rim.
The measure has at least one advantage that may help win passage: "Republican congressional leaders, who support Trade Promotion Authority, can time the vote for when support appears to be sufficient and can make multiple attempts if necessary," Alec Phillips, U.S. Political Economist for Goldman Sachs, said in the report.