CORRECTION: This article, originally published at 1:20 p.m. on Thursday, June 4, 2015, has been updated to correct the location of the Greek coastline.
NEW YORK (The Street) -- Greek drama alert: The country by the Aegean Sea is supposed to repay 300 million euros to the International Monetary Fund Friday.
Will it? Who knows. But that question is at the center of a media-led drama that's playing out as if the future of the world depended on it.
Should you be worried? Unless you have lent the Greek government money, probably not. Here are seven reasons why:
- Is Greece a vital iPhone market? Regardless of how many iPhones, or similar products, Apple sells in Greece, it's unlikely the company is betting the farm on that market, or even that CEO Tim Cook loses sleep over it. And as Apple (APPL) goes, so goes the market. It is Apple's earnings that will, in part, drive what happens to major indices such as the S&P 500. Sales of its products in Greece aren't likely to move the needle on that front. It probably doesn't matter a whole lot to other companies like General Motors (GM) or Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR) either.
- Greece's economy is small and shrinking. World Bank figures for 2013 put its GDP at $242 billion, slightly smaller than the economy of Missouri, which was $258 billion in the same year, according to the U.S. government. To put that in perspective, Greece was less than 2% of the size of the $15.5 trillion U.S. economy. The austerity being pushed at Greece by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission will make its economy even smaller and less relevant.
- It's an emerging market, as classified by S&P Dow Jones Indices and other similar organizations. U.S. equity investors wouldn't get worried if there was a crisis in, say, Thailand or Russia, so why worry about Greece? In fact, there is a growing crisis in Russia and has been for a while now and the markets in the U.S. have continued climbing.
- Greece is on the down elevator of economic growth. In October 2013, when the classification for Greece was pushed from developed market (like Germany and the United States) down to emerging markets, two other countries were upgraded: Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Qatar and UAE are on the up elevator of growth and development: Greece, not so much. What do investors worry about more, Greece or those Gulf States?
- Dire warnings of economic Armageddon following any Greek exit from the euro are just scare tactics. When I spoke with former U.K. finance chief Lord Nigel Lawson earlier this year, he said that the whole goal behind the euro was to have a political union. It's something he's been against since the 1980s, possibly longer. Whether you agree with his long-standing euro-skeptic position doesn't matter. What matters is that when one views the Greek crisis through that lens, then the predictions of catastrophe make sense. The people who scream of impending doom just want the euro to stay together and then lead to a political union.
- The news we hear about Greece's problems is out in the open. It simply won't be a repeat of the subprime meltdown where many observers were caught off guard. Those who did see it coming, like economist Nouriel Roubini, were derided at the time. He was dubbed Dr. Doom. Even the Federal Reserve was blindsided. This time, everyone is watching closely. In fact, it may almost be the opposite of subprime: too much worry as opposed to not enough worry in 2007.
- The end of the euro, if it ever happens, won't be chaotic. If the euro does unravel, and I don't think we're there yet, then the European Central Bank (Europe's equivalent of the Federal Reserve) will be very careful to make sure its dissolution takes place in an orderly manner.