Cisco's Break Could Be the Beginning of a Steep Pullback

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Cisco (CSCO) has gone nowhere since its seven-week rally began to fail on May 22. Is a new rally ahead, or is the stock on the verge of a steep pullback?

The stock has remained in a very tight range since May 22, when it fell below the lower band of a bull channel that had been in place since the late March low. The trade action that followed has been listless, while volume has returned to below-average levels. Without a positive jolt soon, Cisco's channel break may prove to be the beginning of a steep pullback.

Jim Cramer's charitable trust Action Alerts PLUS owns Cisco, and recently reaffirmed his faith in the stock. Read his analysis here.

Currently Cisco is stabilizing near the middle of its four-week range, but the pattern near the recent highs is taking on a more dangerous look. The stock began to lose upside momentum in late February as it marked a new 2015 high. The stock suffered a deep pullback soon after, and by the March low, it had dropped over 12%.

As March came to a close, Cisco began to recover, and by early April, a powerful bull channel was under construction. The channel carried Cisco back to within 50 cents of its March peak, but lacked the juice to complete a retest.

The question now is whether Cisco is consolidating ahead of a new rally or if it's on the verge of a steep pullback. There are tight parameters in place that will tell the tale.

On the bullish side, a close above the May high of $29.90 on accelerating trade would indicate investors are gaining interest once again. Once past the May high, the stock would be clear to make a run past the 2015 peak.

On the bearish side, a close below the May low of $28.70, which is marked by the 50-day moving average as well, would mean bullish interest continues to dry up. A pullback, possibly back down to the 200-day moving average of $26.85, may be needed to reinvigorate investors. 

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At the time of publication, Morrow was long CSCO.

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