RAVN: Insiders vs. Shorts

The most recent short interest data was recently released by the NASDAQ for the 04/30/2015 settlement date, and Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is one of the most shorted stocks of the Russell 3000, based on 15.55 "days to cover" versus the median component at 5.42. There are a number of ways to look at short data, but one metric that we find particularly useful is the "days to cover" because it considers both the total shares short and the average daily volume of shares typically traded. The number of shares short is then divided by the average daily volume, to express the total number of trading days it would take to close out all of the open short positions if every share traded represented a short position being closed.

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In the case of Raven Industries, Inc. ( RAVN), the total short interest at the 04/30/2015 settlement date was 2,292,061 shares, which compares to the average daily trading volume of just 147,391 shares, for a "days to cover" ratio of 15.55.

When short sellers eventually cover their positions, by definition there must be buying activity because a share that is currently sold short must be purchased to be covered. At the present levels of short interest, if from this point forward every single RAVN share traded represented a short position being closed, then at the average daily volume of 147,391 shares it would only be during the 16th trading day that every short position would be closed.

So it would stand to reason that should some unexpectedly good news come out, and short sellers did not have 16 days of patience but instead wanted to cover their short positions very suddenly, that situation could result in sending the stock higher until the higher price produces enough sellers to generate the necessary volume to close out those positions quickly.

Raven Industries, Inc. ( RAVN) has something relatively rare for a stock with this much short interest, that being insiders taking the other side of the trade. Looking back over the trailing six month period, RAVN has seen 2 different instances of insider buying, as summarized by the table below:

Purchased Insider Title Shares Price/Share Value
04/09/2015 Marc E. Lebaron Director 5,000 $20.63 $103,149.50
05/22/2015 Jason M. Andringa Director 2,488 $19.24 $47,869.12

Below is a chart showing the "days to cover" for RAVN over time:

Loading+chart++2015+TickerTech.com

And looking at the chart below, RAVN's low point in its 52 week range is $16.91 per share, with $34.56 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $19.41.

Raven Industries, Inc. Moving Averages Chart

In recent trading, shares of Raven Industries, Inc. ( RAVN) were changing hands at $19.41/share.

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