9 Contrarian Consumer Stock Picks to Buy Before June

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- June has historically been one of the weakest months for equities. Stock selection -- both buying and selling -- will be critical in the short term.

Consumer stocks, particularly discretionary stocks, along with financials, have been the worst performing sectors in June.

The stock market in June has averaged a 1.32% decline over the past 10 years, Jonathan Krinsky, the chief market technician at MKM Partners, wrote in a technical strategy report published Tuesday. Meanwhile, July has bounced back, averaging a 1.68% gain, he said.

"June will be here quickly, and it has been by far the worst month for stocks over the last 10 years," Krinsky wrote. "Therefore, some weakness into early summer would not be surprising, but in our view that would set-up a buying opportunity in July."

"We think this market continues to be two steps forward one step back, where stock selection is more important than market direction," Krinsky added.

The report highlights 40 contrarian stock ideas by screening the Russell 3000 to find 30 stocks that have less than 25% analyst buy ratings, but have bullish charts. The report also highlights 10 stocks that have over 75% analyst buy ratings but have bearish charts.

The buy screen included 10 consumer stocks. Below, TheStreet paired those stocks with ratings from TheStreet Ratings. And when you're done be sure to check out three contrarian tech stock ideas.

TheStreet Ratings, TheStreet's proprietary ratings tool, projects a stock's total return potential over a 12-month period including both price appreciation and dividends. Based on 32 major data points, TheStreet Ratings uses a quantitative approach to rating over 4,300 stocks to predict return potential for the next year. The model is both objective, using elements such as volatility of past operating revenues, financial strength, and company cash flows, and subjective, including expected equities market returns, future interest rates, implied industry outlook and forecasted company earnings.

Buying an S&P 500 stock that TheStreet Ratings rated a "buy" yielded a 16.56% return in 2014 beating the S&P 500 Total Return Index by 304 basis points. Buying a Russell 2000 stock that TheStreet Ratings rated a "buy" yielded a 9.5% return in 2014, beating the Russell 2000 index, including dividends reinvested, by 460 basis points last year.

Note: Year-to-date returns are based on May 27, 2015 closing prices.

MCD Chart MCD data by YCharts

1. McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
Industry: Consumer Goods & Services/Restaurants
Market Cap: $93.8 billion
Year-to-date return: 5.3%
McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in the United States, Europe, the Asia/Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, Canada, and Latin America. The company's restaurants offer various food products, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages.

TheStreet Ratings: Buy, B
TheStreet Ratings said: "We rate MCDONALD'S CORP (MCD) a BUY. This is driven by a number of strengths, which we believe should have a greater impact than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its notable return on equity and expanding profit margins. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had somewhat weak growth in earnings per share."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • The return on equity has improved slightly when compared to the same quarter one year prior. This can be construed as a modest strength in the organization. Compared to other companies in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry and the overall market, MCDONALD'S CORP's return on equity significantly exceeds that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
  • 43.42% is the gross profit margin for MCDONALD'S CORP which we consider to be strong. Regardless of MCD's high profit margin, it has managed to decrease from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, MCD's net profit margin of 13.61% compares favorably to the industry average.
  • MCD, with its decline in revenue, slightly underperformed the industry average of 7.5%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues fell by 11.1%. Weakness in the company's revenue seems to have hurt the bottom line, decreasing earnings per share.
  • In its most recent trading session, MCD has closed at a price level that was not very different from its closing price of one year earlier. This is probably due to its weak earnings growth as well as other mixed factors. Looking ahead, although the push and pull of the overall market trend could certainly make a critical difference, we do not see any strong reason stemming from the company's fundamentals that would cause a continuation of last year's decline. In fact, the stock is now selling for less than others in its industry in relation to its current earnings.
  • Net operating cash flow has decreased to $1,699.50 million or 10.89% when compared to the same quarter last year. Despite a decrease in cash flow of 10.89%, MCDONALD'S CORP is in line with the industry average cash flow growth rate of -11.49%.

 

CAG Chart CAG data by YCharts

2. ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG)
Industry: Consumer Non-Discretionary/Packaged Foods & Meats
Market Cap: $16.5 billion
Year-to-date return: 6.7%
ConAgra Foods, Inc. operates as a food company primarily in North America. The company operates through three segments: Consumer Foods, Commercial Foods, and Private Brands.

TheStreet Ratings: Hold, C
TheStreet Ratings said: "We rate CONAGRA FOODS INC (CAG) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed - some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. Among the primary strengths of the company is its solid stock price performance. At the same time, however, we also find weaknesses including deteriorating net income, generally higher debt management risk and disappointing return on equity."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • Looking at where the stock is today compared to one year ago, we find that it is not only higher, but it has also clearly outperformed the rise in the S&P 500 over the same period, despite the company's weak earnings results. Despite the fact that it has already risen in the past year, there is currently no conclusive evidence that warrants the purchase or sale of this stock.
  • Regardless of the drop in revenue, the company managed to outperform against the industry average of 10.9%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly dropped by 1.8%. Weakness in the company's revenue seems to have hurt the bottom line, decreasing earnings per share.
  • CONAGRA FOODS INC has experienced a steep decline in earnings per share in the most recent quarter in comparison to its performance from the same quarter a year ago. The company has reported a trend of declining earnings per share over the past two years. However, the consensus estimate suggests that this trend should reverse in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, CONAGRA FOODS INC reported lower earnings of $0.54 versus $1.87 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($2.17 versus $0.54).
  • The gross profit margin for CONAGRA FOODS INC is currently lower than what is desirable, coming in at 25.02%. It has decreased from the same quarter the previous year. Along with this, the net profit margin of -24.61% is significantly below that of the industry average.
  • Net operating cash flow has decreased to $322.80 million or 16.50% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing the cash generation rate to the industry average, the firm's growth is significantly lower.

 

 

CPB Chart CPB data by YCharts

3. Campbell Soup Co. (CPB)
Industry: Consumer Non-Discretionary/Packaged Foods & Meats
Market Cap: $15 billion
Year-to-date return: 9.4%
Campbell Soup Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets convenience food products. It operates through U.S. Simple Meals; Global Baking and Snacking; International Simple Meals and Beverages; U.S. Beverages; and Bolthouse and Foodservice segments.

TheStreet Ratings: Buy, B+
TheStreet Ratings said: "We rate CAMPBELL SOUP CO (CPB) a BUY. This is driven by a few notable strengths, which we believe should have a greater impact than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its notable return on equity, expanding profit margins and increase in stock price during the past year. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had generally high debt management risk by most measures that we evaluated."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • The return on equity has improved slightly when compared to the same quarter one year prior. This can be construed as a modest strength in the organization. Compared to other companies in the Food Products industry and the overall market, CAMPBELL SOUP CO's return on equity significantly exceeds that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
  • 39.79% is the gross profit margin for CAMPBELL SOUP CO which we consider to be strong. It has increased from the same quarter the previous year. Along with this, the net profit margin of 9.57% is above that of the industry average.
  • CAMPBELL SOUP CO reported flat earnings per share in the most recent quarter. This company has reported somewhat volatile earnings recently. But, we feel it is poised for EPS growth in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, CAMPBELL SOUP CO increased its bottom line by earning $2.32 versus $2.16 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($2.38 versus $2.32).
  • Compared to where it was a year ago today, the stock is now trading at a higher level, regardless of the company's weak earnings results. Looking ahead, unless broad bear market conditions prevail, we still see more upside potential for this stock, despite the fact that it has already risen over the past year.
  • Regardless of the drop in revenue, the company managed to outperform against the industry average of 10.8%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly dropped by 3.5%. Weakness in the company's revenue seems to not be hurting the bottom line, shown by stable earnings per share.

 

GIS Chart GIS data by YCharts

4. General Mills Inc. (GIS)
Industry: Consumer Non-Discretionary/Packaged Foods & Meats
Market Cap: $33.7 billion
Year-to-date return: 5.9%

General Mills, Inc. manufactures and markets branded consumer foods in the United States and internationally. It also supplies branded and unbranded food products to the foodservice and commercial baking industries.

TheStreet Ratings: Buy, A-
TheStreet Ratings said: "We rate GENERAL MILLS INC (GIS) a BUY. This is based on the convergence of positive investment measures, which should help this stock outperform the majority of stocks that we rate. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its increase in stock price during the past year, expanding profit margins, reasonable valuation levels and notable return on equity. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had sub par growth in net income."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • Compared to where it was 12 months ago, the stock is up, but it has so far lagged the appreciation in the S&P 500. Turning our attention to the future direction of the stock, it goes without saying that even the best stocks can fall in an overall down market. However, in any other environment, this stock still has good upside potential despite the fact that it has already risen in the past year.
  • Despite the weak revenue results, GIS has outperformed against the industry average of 10.9%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly dropped by 0.6%. The declining revenue appears to have seeped down to the company's bottom line, decreasing earnings per share.
  • 35.71% is the gross profit margin for GENERAL MILLS INC which we consider to be strong. Regardless of GIS's high profit margin, it has managed to decrease from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of 7.88% trails the industry average.
  • The company's current return on equity has slightly decreased from the same quarter one year prior. This implies a minor weakness in the organization. Compared to other companies in the Food Products industry and the overall market, GENERAL MILLS INC's return on equity significantly exceeds that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.

 

AN Chart AN data by YCharts

5. Autonation Inc. (AN)
Industry: Consumer Goods & Services/Automotive Retail
Market Cap: $7.2 billion
Year-to-date return: 1%
AutoNation, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury.

TheStreet Ratings: Buy, A-
TheStreet Ratings said: "We rate AUTONATION INC (AN) a BUY. This is based on the convergence of positive investment measures, which should help this stock outperform the majority of stocks that we rate. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, increase in stock price during the past year, impressive record of earnings per share growth, increase in net income and reasonable valuation levels. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had generally high debt management risk by most measures that we evaluated."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • AN's revenue growth has slightly outpaced the industry average of 10.3%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 13.3%. Growth in the company's revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings per share.
  • The stock has risen over the past year as investors have generally rewarded the company for its earnings growth and other positive factors like the ones we have cited in this report. Turning our attention to the future direction of the stock, it goes without saying that even the best stocks can fall in an overall down market. However, in any other environment, this stock still has good upside potential despite the fact that it has already risen in the past year.
  • AUTONATION INC has improved earnings per share by 22.8% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past two years. We feel that this trend should continue. During the past fiscal year, AUTONATION INC increased its bottom line by earning $3.54 versus $3.05 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($4.09 versus $3.54).
  • The net income growth from the same quarter one year ago has greatly exceeded that of the S&P 500, but is less than that of the Specialty Retail industry average. The net income increased by 17.2% when compared to the same quarter one year prior, going from $95.10 million to $111.50 million.

 

BYD Chart BYD data by YCharts

6. Boyd Gaming Corp. (BYD)
Industry: Consumer Goods & Services/Casinos & Gaming
Market Cap: $1.6 billion
Year-to-date return: 12%
Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company. It operates in five segments: Las Vegas, Downtown Las Vegas, Midwest and South, Peninsula, and Borgata.

TheStreet Ratings: Hold, C
TheStreet Ratings said: "We rate BOYD GAMING CORP (BYD) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed - some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its solid stock price performance, impressive record of earnings per share growth and compelling growth in net income. However, as a counter to these strengths, we find that the company has favored debt over equity in the management of its balance sheet."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • Powered by its strong earnings growth of 616.66% and other important driving factors, this stock has surged by 30.16% over the past year, outperforming the rise in the S&P 500 Index during the same period. Regarding the stock's future course, our hold rating indicates that we do not recommend additional investment in this stock despite its gains in the past year.
  • BOYD GAMING CORP reported significant earnings per share improvement in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past two years. We feel that this trend should continue. This trend suggests that the performance of the business is improving. During the past fiscal year, BOYD GAMING CORP continued to lose money by earning -$0.48 versus -$0.87 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($0.36 versus -$0.48).
  • 41.28% is the gross profit margin for BOYD GAMING CORP which we consider to be strong. It has increased from the same quarter the previous year. Regardless of the strong results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of 6.37% trails the industry average.
  • The company's current return on equity greatly increased when compared to its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a signal of significant strength within the corporation. Compared to other companies in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry and the overall market, BOYD GAMING CORP's return on equity significantly trails that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
  • The debt-to-equity ratio is very high at 7.11 and currently higher than the industry average, implying increased risk associated with the management of debt levels within the company. To add to this, BYD has a quick ratio of 0.55, this demonstrates the lack of ability of the company to cover short-term liquidity needs.

 

HMHC Chart HMHC data by YCharts

7. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co. (HMHC)
Industry: Consumer Goods & Services/Education Services
Market Cap: $3.7 billion
Year-to-date return: 25.2%
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Company provides education solutions for educational institutions and consumers worldwide. It delivers content, technology, and services to approximately 50 million students. The company operates in two segments, Education and Trade Publishing.

TheStreet Ratings: Hold, C
TheStreet Ratings said: "We rate HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT CO (HMHC) a SELL. This is driven by a few notable weaknesses, which we believe should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its disappointing return on equity and feeble growth in its earnings per share."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • The company's current return on equity has slightly decreased from the same quarter one year prior. This implies a minor weakness in the organization. Compared to other companies in the Diversified Consumer Services industry and the overall market, HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT CO's return on equity significantly trails that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
  • HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT CO's earnings per share declined by 6.7% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has reported a trend of declining earnings per share over the past year. However, the consensus estimate suggests that this trend should reverse in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT CO reported poor results of -$0.81 versus -$0.79 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings (-$0.41 versus -$0.81).
  • The change in net income from the same quarter one year ago has exceeded that of the S&P 500 and greatly outperformed compared to the Diversified Consumer Services industry average. The net income has decreased by 9.3% when compared to the same quarter one year ago, dropping from -$146.34 million to -$159.94 million.
  • 35.68% is the gross profit margin for HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT CO which we consider to be strong. It has increased from the same quarter the previous year. Regardless of the strong results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of -98.32% is in-line with the industry average.
  • Net operating cash flow has slightly increased to -$92.93 million or 9.37% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT CO has also vastly surpassed the industry average cash flow growth rate of -344.62%.

 

LEG Chart LEG data by YCharts

8. Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG)
Industry: Consumer Goods & Services/Home Furnishings
Market Cap: $6.5 billion
Year-to-date return: 11%
Leggett & Platt, Incorporated designs and produces a range of engineered components and products worldwide.

TheStreet Ratings: Buy, A+
TheStreet Ratings said: "We rate LEGGETT & PLATT INC (LEG) a BUY. This is based on the convergence of positive investment measures, which should help this stock outperform the majority of stocks that we rate. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, impressive record of earnings per share growth, notable return on equity, good cash flow from operations and solid stock price performance. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company is trading at a premium valuation based on our review of its current price compared to such things as earnings and book value."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • LEG's revenue growth has slightly outpaced the industry average of 7.9%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 10.4%. Growth in the company's revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings per share.
  • LEGGETT & PLATT INC has improved earnings per share by 31.6% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past year. We feel that this trend should continue. During the past fiscal year, LEGGETT & PLATT INC increased its bottom line by earning $1.55 versus $1.25 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($2.07 versus $1.55).
  • Current return on equity exceeded its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a clear sign of strength within the company. Compared to other companies in the Household Durables industry and the overall market, LEGGETT & PLATT INC's return on equity exceeds that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
  • Net operating cash flow has significantly increased by 262.94% to $32.10 million when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, LEGGETT & PLATT INC has also vastly surpassed the industry average cash flow growth rate of -74.09%.
  • Powered by its strong earnings growth of 31.57% and other important driving factors, this stock has surged by 43.79% over the past year, outperforming the rise in the S&P 500 Index during the same period. We feel that the stock's sharp appreciation over the last year has driven it to a price level which is now somewhat expensive compared to the rest of its industry. The other strengths this company shows, however, justify the higher price levels.

 

 

 

MKC Chart MKC data by YCharts

9. McCormick & Co. (MKC)
Industry: Consumer Non-Discretionary/Packaged Foods & Meats
Market Cap: $10 billion
Year-to-date return: 6.1%
McCormick & Company, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products to the food industry worldwide. It operates through two segments, Consumer and Industrial.

TheStreet Ratings: Buy, B+
TheStreet Ratings said: "We rate MCCORMICK & CO INC (MKC) a BUY. This is driven by a few notable strengths, which we believe should have a greater impact than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, notable return on equity, good cash flow from operations, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and increase in stock price during the past year. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had sub par growth in net income."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • The revenue growth came in higher than the industry average of 10.9%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 1.7%. This growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled down to the company's bottom line, displayed by a decline in earnings per share.
  • Current return on equity exceeded its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a clear sign of strength within the company. Compared to other companies in the Food Products industry and the overall market, MCCORMICK & CO INC's return on equity significantly exceeds that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
  • Net operating cash flow has increased to $95.90 million or 25.03% when compared to the same quarter last year. Despite an increase in cash flow, MCCORMICK & CO INC's average is still marginally south of the industry average growth rate of 31.10%.
  • The debt-to-equity ratio is somewhat low, currently at 0.79, and is less than that of the industry average, implying that there has been a relatively successful effort in the management of debt levels. Even though the company has a strong debt-to-equity ratio, the quick ratio of 0.38 is very weak and demonstrates a lack of ability to pay short-term obligations.
  • Compared to where it was a year ago today, the stock is now trading at a higher level, regardless of the company's weak earnings results. Looking ahead, unless broad bear market conditions prevail, we still see more upside potential for this stock, despite the fact that it has already risen over the past year.

 

DPS Chart DPS data by YCharts

10. Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (DPS)
I
ndustry: Consumer Non-Discretionary/Soft Drinks
Market Cap: $14.8 billion
Year-to-date return: 7.9%
Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. operates as a brand owner, manufacturer, and distributor of non-alcoholic beverages in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean. The company operates through three segments: Beverage Concentrates, Packaged Beverages, and Latin America Beverages.

TheStreet Ratings: Buy, A
TheStreet Ratings said: "We rate DR PEPPER SNAPPLE GROUP INC (DPS) a BUY. This is based on the convergence of positive investment measures, which should help this stock outperform the majority of stocks that we rate. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, notable return on equity, solid stock price performance, growth in earnings per share and expanding profit margins. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had generally high debt management risk by most measures that we evaluated."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • DPS's revenue growth has slightly outpaced the industry average of 5.6%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 3.8%. This growth in revenue appears to have trickled down to the company's bottom line, improving the earnings per share.
  • Investors have apparently begun to recognize positive factors similar to those we have mentioned in this report, including earnings growth. This has helped drive up the company's shares by a sharp 35.65% over the past year, a rise that has exceeded that of the S&P 500 Index. Regarding the stock's future course, although almost any stock can fall in a broad market decline, DPS should continue to move higher despite the fact that it has already enjoyed a very nice gain in the past year.
  • The return on equity has improved slightly when compared to the same quarter one year prior. This can be construed as a modest strength in the organization. Compared to other companies in the Beverages industry and the overall market, DR PEPPER SNAPPLE GROUP INC's return on equity significantly exceeds that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
  • DR PEPPER SNAPPLE GROUP INC's earnings per share improvement from the most recent quarter was slightly positive. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past two years. We feel that this trend should continue. During the past fiscal year, DR PEPPER SNAPPLE GROUP INC increased its bottom line by earning $3.57 versus $3.06 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($3.90 versus $3.57).
  • The gross profit margin for DR PEPPER SNAPPLE GROUP INC is rather high; currently it is at 60.03%. Regardless of DPS's high profit margin, it has managed to decrease from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of 10.82% trails the industry average.

 

 

 

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