'Fast Money' Recap: Making Odds on Greece Leaving the Eurozone

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The Federal Reserve statement sent stocks higher on Wednesday, but CNBC's "Fast Money" traders were more concerned about Greece. 

Will there be a deal between the struggling country and its negotiators? Anna Markowska, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale, said, "There's a good chance that they do finally come to some sort of agreement by the end of the month," she said. She put the odds at 60%. 

Assuming this happens, it opens the door for the Fed to increase interest rates in September, she added. As for a Greek exit from the eurozone, she put those odds at 20%. Even if that ended up being the case, it would take time for the two sides to unwind Greece's inclusion in the eurozone, during which time the European Central Bank would likely continue funding the country. 

A 20% probability of a Greek exit seemed pretty low to Brian Kelly, founder of Brian Kelly Capital, who puts the odds at closer to 50-50. It would be economic and political suicide for Greece's government to give into the demands being asked, he added. 

A Greek exit could weigh on U.S. stocks, something Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said at Wednesday's press conference. She says the move would impact the European economy, which could then weigh on the U.S. economy, Kelly added. 

If it does weigh on U.S. stocks, the pullback will only be brief, according to Pete Najarian, co-founder of optionmonster.com and trademonster.com. He still likes financial stocks, especially on a pullback. 

Guy Adami, managing director of stockmonster.com, added that he likes Deutsche Bank (DB) near current levels. 

U.S. stocks traded well on Thursday, said Dan Nathan, co-founder and editor of riskreversal.com. It feels like investors are prepared for a September rate hike and are okay if the Fed proceeds with it. However, when combined with other geopolitical events, it could set up stocks for a 5% to 10% pullback near the end of summer. 

The conversation turned to Oracle (ORCL), which missed on top- and bottom-line estimates, sending the stock lower by 7% in after-hours trading.

"This was an ugly print," said Dan Ives, managing director at FBR Capital Markets. This was supposed to be Oracle's seasonally strong quarter, so the results were really disappointing. Management blamed the strong U.S. dollar but that excuse is starting to get old to investors. "They have to do something big," likely through M&A, to generate some growth, he said. Otherwise, this could be a $40 stock for the next year. 

The dollar has been strong for a while, so it seems somewhat "disingenuous" to use that as an excuse at this point, Adami said. Operating margins were also disappointing. However, he is a buyer at $41. 

The company has been "floundering" as it battles Salesforce.com (CRM) in the cloud, according to Nathan. The stock has been in a tight range this year and it's important for bullish investors that the stock stays above $42. However, the stock could be headed lower, as the valuation becomes too high amid the company's lack of growth, he explained. 

When companies switch to a subscription model as Oracle did, there tends to be a short-term slowdown in the business. For now, investors should buy the stock on this dip and use $41 as their stop-loss, Kelly said. 

Najarian, however, said he's encouraged to see Oracle making a move into high-growth businesses such as the cloud. Although it's in the middle of transitioning, he likes Oracle's long-term prospects. He called the stock oversold after this report. 

For their final trades, Najarian is buying Reynolds American (RAI) and Nathan is waiting to buy FedEx (FDX) at $70. Kelly said to buy Salesforce.com and Adami is buying Proofpoint (PFPT). 

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