As the Rubber Band Gets Stretched
Posted at 10:13 AM EDT on Friday, May 15, 2015
I raised my short exposure further this morning based on the ever-widening chasm between financial asset prices (higher) and the real economy (disappointing.)
The chasm has gotten so large that I am prepared to take some more short-term pain for long-term gain.
JPM Still a Best Idea
Posted at 7:50 AM EDT on Thursday, May 14, 2015
Yesterday, I spent an hour updating my analysis of JPMorgan (JPM).
JPMorgan's shares have more doubled the return of the large bank stock index over the last three months.
Nevertheless, I feel strongly that (1) JPM is among the best positioned money center banks, (2) the bank has the best scale of any major bank and (3) consensus earnings estimates are a bit too low for 2015 and 2016 (with the source of the potential beat in investment banking, strength in the commercial bank and in real estate),
JPMorgan still trades at a modest (5%) valuation discount to its peers.
I expect JPMorgan's shares to trade in the low- to mid- $70s by the same time next year.
The shares were placed on my Best Ideas list on March 26, 2015 at $59.05.
JPM remains on my Best Ideas list.