TRUE: Insiders Vs. Shorts

The most recent short interest data was recently released by the NASDAQ for the 04/30/2015 settlement date, and TrueCar Inc ( TRUE) is one of the most shorted stocks of the Russell 3000, based on 7.93 "days to cover" versus the median component at 5.42. There are a number of ways to look at short data, but one metric that we find particularly useful is the "days to cover" because it considers both the total shares short and the average daily volume of shares typically traded. The number of shares short is then divided by the average daily volume, to express the total number of trading days it would take to close out all of the open short positions if every share traded represented a short position being closed.

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In the case of TrueCar Inc ( TRUE), the total short interest at the 04/30/2015 settlement date was 8,465,308 shares, which compares to the average daily trading volume of just 1,067,938 shares, for a "days to cover" ratio of 7.93.

When short sellers eventually cover their positions, by definition there must be buying activity because a share that is currently sold short must be purchased to be covered. At the present levels of short interest, if from this point forward every single TRUE share traded represented a short position being closed, then at the average daily volume of 1,067,938 shares it would only be during the 8th trading day that every short position would be closed.

So it would stand to reason that should some unexpectedly good news come out, and short sellers did not have 8 days of patience but instead wanted to cover their short positions very suddenly, that situation could result in sending the stock higher until the higher price produces enough sellers to generate the necessary volume to close out those positions quickly.

TrueCar Inc ( TRUE) has something relatively rare for a stock with this much short interest, that being insiders taking the other side of the trade. Looking back over the trailing six month period, TRUE has seen 4 different instances of insider buying, as summarized by the table below:

Purchased Insider Title Shares Price/Share Value
11/14/2014 Christopher W. Claus Director 20,000 $16.88 $337,500.00
11/17/2014 Scott Painter CEO & Chairman of the Board 29,411 $17.00 $499,987.00
11/21/2014 Christopher W. Claus Director 10,000 $17.80 $178,000.00
02/24/2015 Scott Painter CEO & Chairman of the Board 70,000 $17.53 $1,227,430.35
02/25/2015 Steven J. Dietz Director 2,000 $17.62 $35,233.20
02/25/2015 Christopher W. Claus Director 10,000 $17.70 $177,000.00
05/12/2015 John Krafcik President 7,500 $13.48 $101,100.00
05/13/2015 Scott Painter CEO & Chairman of the Board 13,885 $14.24 $197,666.86

Below is a chart showing the "days to cover" for TRUE over time:

Loading+chart++2015+TickerTech.com

And looking at the chart below, TRUE's low point in its 52 week range is $9.05 per share, with $25.00 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $14.45.

TrueCar Inc Moving Averages Chart

In recent trading, shares of TrueCar Inc ( TRUE) were changing hands at $14.45/share.

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