NEW YORK (The Street) -- The stock market still has plenty of room to rise, says Bill Greiner, chief investment officer for Mariner Holdings.
U.S. stocks are in a secular bull market, the third one since 1900, Greiner says.
The last secular bull market ran from 1982 to 1999, according to Greiner, and over that 17-year period, the average annualized rate of return for the S&P 500 was about 16% a year.
A lot of the hallmarks of the start of a secular bull market were present at the bottom, in 2009, he says: "The market was washed out."
"Sentiment was awful. People knew that they were just not going to buy stocks anymore one way or the other," Greiner adds. "Valuations were relatively cheap and it reminded us of ... the start of the secular bull market we saw in 1982."
This bull market may not have same duration capability as the one that began in 1982, the investor says, noting that the shortest one lasted nine years.
Now six years in, the current bull market will probably last another six years, he predicts.
Asked whether investments in Europe and Japan are better bets than ones in the U.S. since nations in those areas outside the States have just starting quantitative-easing programs, Greiner says his portfolio favors U.S. stocks, but a large portion -- some 40% -- is in foreign issues.
Mariner had been putting money into Japan and Europe with a currency hedge but about four weeks ago removed the euro hedge. The euro's appreciation has "helped out," Greiner adds.
Consumer and technology stocks will benefit from a general shift in the U.S. economy from a capital-spending-intense growth profile toward a consumption growth profile, he says, adding that tech stocks "hold some real value here," from a valuation perspective.
Lower oil prices don't seem to have benefited consumer discretionary stocks much but will eventually, Greiner asserts.
He anticipates that oil prices will remain in the $45- to $70-a-barrel range.
"Oil in general is probably going to stay within this tight corridor," he says. "Once consumers understand that, then... more than likely some time later this year, they're going to start opening their wallets."