NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Be careful what you wish for. It might happen and you aren't ready for it.
That's how I felt watching Thursday unfold. It was one of the more perfect setups for the bulls because of a host of reasons: 1) Oil. 2) The dollar. 3) Pessimism. 4) Earnings.
Let's take them one at a time.
The speed with which oil has been rallying and the consistency of the move, the sheer viciousness of it, have just totally obliterated the positive stories for whole swaths of the market. A huge rally in anything that amounts to a higher tax on the two-thirds of the U.S. economy -- that is, consumers -- can just be a gigantic buzzkill.
A 50% jump in crude can crush a whole market. Yet that's what we have had.
Now, how significant is it? If you look at the charts of any of the retailers, restaurants or airlines, you will notice a peak in these stocks coincident with the bottom in oil. It is almost as if it doesn't matter or hasn't mattered what these companies say on their conference calls, the action has all been bad. Don't believe me? Hit up the charts of American Airlines (AAL), Delta (DAL), United Continental (UAL), even Spirit (SAVE). They act like death.
Or check out the action in Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI) and Sonic (SONC). These two companies reported remarkably good quarters, as did Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Denny's (DENN), Darden (DRI), Jack in the Box (JACK), DineEquity (DIN), also known as IHOP and Applebee's, and they all look the same. A peak and then a bruising, even though all we heard were good things.